The options after the defeat on Tuesday

I have been thinking about the options facing the UK after Theresa May's inevitable defeat on the vote on Tuesday. There's lots of pages in the press in the options facing us so let's take a look.

Confidence Vote
The DUP have said they will vote for the Government in the event of a confidence vote. The Tories will not vote to let in Corbyn so it is extremely unlikely that this event will happen.

General Election
This option is if Prime Minister decides on a General Election. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for it. I don't think the Prime Minister will go for this, especially after the last one wiped out her majority.

Theresa Resigns
I think this is quite highly likely. She has so far been very resilient, but I have a hunch that she just wants to get to this vote and to say that she tried her best. Maybe not.

Vote of Confidence in Theresa
This would happen if 48 letters go into the Graham Brady as the chairman of the 1922 committee. I think that this is guaranteed if she doesn't resign of her own accord. I think she will then lose, or not win by enough to stay on.

Small Renegotiation
Theresa May somehow clings on and tries to get something small as a concession by the EU. I honestly don't think she will be able to get anything big enough to get a second vote passed.

Delay
So far Theresa May has shown she likes to kick the can down the road. If she does try to delay I reckon the 48 letters will go in. I'm not sure the EU will be happy too.

Big Renegotation
She rips up the plan and starts again? No way. It would have to be under a new PM. Will the EU show any ankle? No way too.

Parliament Tries to Pivot to Norway
There is a mood amongst some remainers to pivot to Norway. Norway gives access to the single market for a fee. It also requires freedom of movement. The one thing it doesn't do is solve the perceived Northern Irish border problem, so it would have to be Norway+, i.e. be in the single market and the custom union.

This, some think, could command a majority in the House of Commons. I'm not sure. This will not satisfy any of Theresa May's red lines, or the aims of the vote. No trade deals, no stopping of freedom of movement, and still paying for being in the single market. It will also stop Corbyn from doing state aid and some of the other protectionist schemes he wants. I would think Labour in the main would go against. It still doesn't satisfy their six tests (although nothing will).

I think it is unlikely.

People's Vote
This will do it's best to get off the line. There will be lots of people against a second referendum, but let's say there is a majority for some kind of referendum. The next question is what will be on the vote. Remain/May's deal, Remain/No deal, Remain/Renegotiate, Remain/May's Deal/No Deal. If it's a three way there would have to be some kind of AV, otherwise there would be accusations of trying to blatantly scupper Brexit. Can you imagine one of those getting a majority out of those that want a referendum? I can't.

But let's say there is some kind of agreement, and it becomes Remain/No deal. The remainers think that the crap negotiation will swing some 2016 leavers in to remain, and it is likely for a small group. There will also be some more youthful voters eligible. There will also be some people who wanted to vote leave last time but were scared by project fear, and now see that nothing bad really happened, so will vote leave. There will also be people who voted remain but see the second vote as an affront to democracy and will vote leave to send a strong message to the Government to listen to the first vote.

The one thing that isn't mentioned in the press is that last time the Government were very pro-Remain. Before the campaigns started the Government spent £9m of taxpayer money on a pamphlet for every house asking to vote remain. What would the Government do this time? This is the Government that said 'Brexit means Brexit'. They could not be pro-Remain this time. Corbyn will still be as luke warm. I think the likelihood is that there would be a bigger vote for leave this time.

Which takes us where?

Managed No Deal
I think when a few of the other options have been tried, we will get to a managed no deal. Small deals to keep the lights on, beneficial to us and the EU. And then we leave.

Squiffy.

F1 2018 is over

The Formula 1 season is over. Lewis Hamilton is champion as are Mercedes again. It's all too easy to think it was another walk in the park for the Mercedes crew but the statistics hide what was a closely fought battle.

At the beginning of the season the Mercedes seemed to have another 'diva' on its hands and Hamilton was not able to extract the maximum. It's been a pattern of the last few years that at the start of the season Hamilton and his team-mate (be it Bottas or Rosberg) are closely matched with Hamilton having the odd weekend where he can't unlock the speed. As the season rolls on he gets more comfortable in the car and then can unlock its potential, he then tends to leave his rivals for dust. This year was no different.As usual, from mid-season Hamilton was riding the peaks.

For much of the season the Ferrari was the fastest car. Vettel was able to take some impressive wins and the title battle was see-sawing between Vettel and Hamilton. For around three races in the second half of the year Ferrari went into a development cul-de-sac and actually made their car slower.  They then reversed the changes and were fastest again. Overall I would say the Ferrari was just a touch faster.

What made the difference? I think it was the drivers. Hamilton has made only a couple of minor errors this year, such as in qualifying in Russia. None of them have made a huge impact. On the other hand Vettel has made six or seven rather large errors which have severely hampered him. I believe if Hamilton had been driving for Ferrari this year then he would still have been World Champion and Ferrari would be celebrating their first for a decade.

Hamilton has been at the top of his game this year, driving better than ever. I think he is right up there with the best. In fact I would now say he's above Schumacher. Not just because the statistics are close, but because of the manner of his winning. He is fair, and he has a team-mate who does not have to be subservient. Schumacher was outright number one in the team and very early in the seasons his team mate would have to pull over for him (e.g. Austria 2002). Bottas let Hamilton through last year in Hungary to try to gain a place, but Hamilton let him back in front later. This year in Russia Bottas let Hamilton through, but at that time it was clear that Bottas was not going to win the championship. There are none of the controversies for Hamilton of Schumachers taking out Hill in 94, Villeneuve in 97 or parking it at Rascasse in Monaco 06.

Hamilton's team mate, Valterri Bottas started well but was really outclassed at the end of the season and really needs to improve next year for him to stop Ocon taking his seat for 2020.

As for Vettel, he needs to cut down the mistakes. That's two years running that his title campaign has been sent awry by big mistakes (Singapore 2017, Germany 2018). I think the pressure of Ferrari gets to him. I think he is going to find it very hard next year with Leclerc at his heels. In fact I think there will be fireworks, and maybe Leclerc will get the better of Vettel (like Ricciardo did in 2014).

For now Alonso is out of F1. A career marked by brilliance in the car and petulance out of it. What could have been? If he'd made different choices at times in his life Alonso could be a seven time World Champ. He may come back, maybe Ferrari in 2020?

For now we can rest on Sundays before it all starts up again next year. The cars will have a few simplified wings, which can only be a good thing. If I had my way they would look simpler still. Roll on 2019.

Squiffy.

Against

I've now fully decided on the EU. The deal which I hate must be voted down. Although I hated the backstop, I hoped the EU would be ok with it and not try to control the UK using it.

Emmanuel Macron has let the cat out of the bag. He said that he would force the UK into the backstop and keep us there until we agreed to let French fisherman have all their rights to UK fishing grounds.

Spain raised similar views on the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

Although EU countries don't have a veto on the withdrawal deal, they do on the trade deal which follows. It is clear they will push us into the backstop and keep us there. That is simply not acceptable and hoping for the EU to be nice to us is not going to cut it.

What will happen? No-one knows. Here's what I hope...

1) The vote goes down
2) Theresa May resigns
3) Labour tries to force a general election and fails
4) The People's Vote lot try to get that through and fail
5) The Tories elect a full-on brexiteer
6) The new leader stops the £39Bn payment.
7) The new leader agrees with the EU for small facilitating deals, for small payments to the EU. These would be deals like keeping the planes flying etc. The payment will be < £1Bn per annum.
8) Parliament feels unable to vote down these small deals.
9) We leave on 29th March with as many as these small deals in place. Maybe with a small delay to the leave date.
10) We become independent.
11) Later, several years later, we approach the EU for a Free Trade Agreement on a par with Canada.

Let's hope...

Squiffy.

The Deal

I'm in conflict. The EU Withdrawal agreement is horrible. I hate it. Especially that the notorious backstop that can only be escaped with the agreement of the EU. It seems to be a serious loss of sovereignty. In fact there is so much to hate. I really don't want it and would rather have a no deal.

But.

I suspect that if it fails, there will be no Brexit and possibly the Government will fail. Is it worth this bad deal in the hope that the Prime Minister is ousted in favour of a Brexiteer once we get into the transition period? That new PM could get a better final deal?

The Government and PM have made such a hash of it. The only solace I know is that Corbyn and his lot would be worse. But it could have been so much better if we'd played hardball.

Oh how I wish it had played out so much better. I suspected Theresa May would make a bad PM and I've been proved right. If only we'd had a proper Brexiteer as PM. It looks like its probably too late to get the Brexit we want and deserve.

Such a shame!

I don't know what I want now.

Squiffy.

One more mistake could lead to an F1 surprise

I've been mulling a possible scenario which may lead to unexpected turn of events in F1 at the end of the season.

Ferrari has the fastest car, marginally faster than the Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes lead the World Championships. The reason being that Sebastien Vettel has made four serious point scoring errors and is now thirty points behind his rival.

Vettel will now be under immense pressure to deliver the first Ferrari World Championship since 2007. It is apparent too that Vettel does not always handle pressure well and it drives him to make more mistakes. Hamilton now makes very few mistakes, his disastrous 2011 season is well behind him.

What if, with a decisive car advantage, Vettel is unable to cut out the mistakes and bring the championship home? The Italian press will be in revolt and pressing for a change. But it will be clear who is at fault. Could Vettel be sacked at the end of the season? It's not unusual for Ferrari to sack a multiple World Champion, they did it to Alain Prost at the end of 1991 after he criticised the car. This time the crime will be more serious by not capitalising on a great car.

If Ferrari were to fire their team lead - who could step forward? They'd need a proven race winner, ideally a champion driving at the top of his game, free of contract. Step forward a certain Mr Alonso. We know he left Ferrari under unhappy circumstances, but he did so at McLaren under worse conditions and went back.

A strange turn of events? Maybe, but with each mistake Vettel makes, I think it becomes more likely.

Squiffy.

Moving fast: A new way forward. PM for PM

It looks like Theresa May's Brexit deal is already dead.

I thought it may be the best way forward but now that more amendments have been added there's no way the EU will accept it without modification. It cannot now stand. Remainers and Leavers are both angry. There can now only be one way forward (for now at least).

Theresa May must be deposed. The time has come for Boris Johnson to do his duty, find his inner Geoffrey How and create a resignation speech that changes the leadership. I believe he is going to make the resignation speech today. He needs to inspire and call for a change of leadership. He needs to go as far as possible to make members of the Government think there can be a better way - without him as Prime Minister.

There needs to be a vote of confidence with certainty that Theresa May will lose and that there is an attractive, viable alternative. Which means someone from the cabinet will have to stand down at that vote of confidence in order to provide an alternative.

There's several available, but right now I have Penny Mordaunt in my mind. Someone who talks human but is a Brexiteer.

If this can be put forward to the party after a barnstorming speech by her which also inspires MPs, the membership will go for it - like they did with David Cameron.

She can then put in place the David Davis White Paper being tough with the EU.

She needs to go to the wire with the EU.

It then needs to be put to the House Of Commons with the stark choice of that plan or no plan. If it fails, the new PM should call an election on the single issue of the deal. As someone new, fresh and human talking to the people she will have a good chance of winning the Brexit votes and Tory votes.

The manifesto will be sacrosanct and MPs will be expected to stick to it or be de-selected in favour of a pro-deal Tory.

At the moment Tories are scared of a general election, for the sole reason that Theresa May is PM. Take her away and put someone more empathetic in her place with a firm plan and Jeremy Corbyn becomes eminently beatable.

At the moment I cannot see another way.

Squiffy.

Brexit deal thoughts

I've had a little time to mull over the Chequers Brexit deal. As a Brexiteer, I think the deal is pretty poor. It' s complex, bureaucratic and does not deliver Brexit. I can fully understand why David Davis resigned. I understand why many people are unhappy with it. I'm unhappy with it. Lots of Tory members are unhappy with it.

So should Theresa May be toppled? Should the deal be scrapped. For me it's a close call.

But...

I've come down on the side of keeping the PM and keeping the deal. Why, when it's crappy? Simple, maths.

I would like there to be a harder Brexit, but there is no way it can get through the House of Commons. This softer Brexit has a slim chance. If the EU can broadly agree with the plan then I think there would be immense pressure on MPs to agree it. If the EU cannot agree, and demands more concessions, then all bets are off. With Tory Eurosceptics likely to vote against it would be dependent on Labour votes - and some of the Labour MPs are pragmatic enough to realise that this may be the best they get.

Let's look to the future, when this deal has been agreed. The Tory party will continue it's long walk to a more Eurosceptic future. After this betrayal, I doubt a non-Eurosceptic Tory will be elected leader by the membership. Once, we're out of the EU future Tory Prime Ministers will be able to re-negotiate the deal and head towards a more independent Britain.

It is depressing that the hope of Brexit has not been realised at this stage and it will take much longer to achieve, but we are where we are, and the PM has badly handled the negotiations and so there is so little time to get an agreement.

My betting, though, is that we will either stay in the EU and then there will be a Tory revolution with a very Eurosceptic leader, or a  nine month extension to the Brexit timetable so that we leave at the end of 2019. If that happens then I expect the PM to be ousted.


Squiffy.

Sick of being labelled dumb?

An article in The Sunday Times today titled 'Brainy Brits come out for Brexit' echoed my own thoughts. A group of intellectuals from economists, lawyers, philosophers, historians and scientists have come together to counter the argument that Brexiteers are thick.

Lately I've been getting pig sick at the unrelenting bias in the media against those who voted for Brexit. Labelled as thick, idiotic, unthinking, misguided and worse, as racists - those who voted for Brexit are beginning to get very annoyed.

As I've said before on these pages, I voted Brexit because I don't believe that Britain should go in the same direction as a unified EU with a single army, government, currency and foreign policy. I don't believe the words spoken recently, that those aims are not the EU's. Those aims have been clear for decades. I wanted control back, and for the EU politicians to stop outvoting the UK at all manner of summit meetings - imposing second rate politicians such as Jean-Claude Juncker on us. I wanted to stop paying loads of money to finance inefficient French farmers and the corrupt common agriculural policy, and greedy Spanish fishermen trawling their nets through British waters while British fishermen go empty handed.

It wasn't about immigration for me, but sovereignty.

That means every morning when I wake up, switch on the Today programme, listen to the business section, I listen daily to the proclamations of doom by various businessmen brought on and cajoled into anti-brexit sentiment by the presenters.

When I watch question time or listen to any questions, I see three or four remainers out-numbering the single brexiteer.

When I watch any TV satirical comedy, the all jokes will be at the expense of dumb brexiteers or the brexiteers in the cabinet. If the EU has just shoved out a draft that Britain will be punished in negotiations, the comedians have a go at British MPs and negotiators for daring to go in with a demanding position. There is no opprobrium for the EU side creating the threats. If it's not that it's because 'we want all foreigners to go home'. I'm beginning to tire of it all...

Another comedy the other day, which has never approached politics in any way, suddenly had the two thickest characters saying that they'd voted Brexit. It makes you want to chuck something at the screen.

There is a deep bias in the media, which we all know about, for trying to obstruct Brexit, trying to make out that we didn't have a clue what we were voting for, that it was stupid to vote for Brexit, and only enlightened people voted to remain. It is demonstrated daily by the presenters, the choice of panellists and choices of news stories.

I am sick of it. Please treat us with respect, as we have to the remainers.

Squiffy.

Brexit lies

A lot has been said about the lies told in the referendum campaign. But since then there a whole load of things said in the generality which are patently untrue.

One that gets me is the 'No one voted to leave the single market'. Well all the main leaders of both Remain and Leave stated that a vote to leave the EU meant to leave the single market also.

Another one has popped up. 'No one voted to be poorer'. Well, the remain campaign was entirely focused on their preposition that a vote leave would make us all poorer, and yet despite these protestations of doom, we still voted Brexit. So, no, we put sovereignty and self-rule above the economy, i.e. we'd take being a little poorer for the right to Govern ourselves.

These things really annoy me!

Squiffy.

2017 is over. Here comes 2018

It's the end of another year, and as is now tradition I mark my predictions and make some new ones. In what is becoming a more unpredictable world, this is getting increasingly difficult!

So here's goes my pitiful efforts from last year.

1. Lewis Hamilton will regain the F1 World Championship    1 points.
2. Daniel Ricciardo will be second in the F1 World Championship and it will get tense with Max Verstappen who'll come third.    0 points.
3. Ferrari will fall further into disarray, with Vettel and Raikonnen leaving at the end of the year.    0 points.
4. Francois Fillon will beat Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French Presidency, Emmanuel Macron will be pipped in the previous round.     0 points.
5. Angela Merkel will remain German Chancellor.      1 points.
6. There will be another Eurozone crisis following Greece intransigence.      0 points.
7. Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March as predicted by the Prime Minister       1 points.
8. A rough outline of Brexit will be presented. Not a member of the Single Market, a free trade agreement on goods, no free movement of peoples and a sector-by-sector membership of the customs union (wheich we'll not get).     1 point.
9. The parties will stay roughly where they are in the polls, Tories 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 9%.      0 points.
10. 2 more Labour MPs will either defect or resign.      0 points.
11. In the Copeland By-Election Labour will narrowly beat the Tories, by less than 2000 votes. UKIP will be a distant third.      0 points.

I make that 4 points out of 10 which isn't very good. No one would have predicted a General Election last year along with the crumbling of the Theresa May's reputation and Jeremy Corbyn's revival. I did get the winner of the F1 World Championship but not the other places. Anyway, I'll make some more predictions for 2018...

1. Lewis Hamilton will win the World Championship for a fifth time.
2. Max Verstappen will be 2nd in the World Championship, with Red Bull beating Ferrari to 2nd in the constuctor's Championship.
3. There will be disarray in Ferrari this year as their car is not as successful as the 2017 version.
4. There will not be a General Election in the UK in 2018.
5. There will be a quick agreement on a a Brexit transition deal and a final deal will be ready in October.
6. It will be a very difficult process and possible constitutional crisis trying to get the EU Withdrawal through the House Of Lords.
7. The Labour Party will have a little crisis over their position on Brexit with some resignations, and Corbyn will end the year less popular.
8. At the end of the year the Tories will still be at 41%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems 10%, UKIP 3%.
9. UKIP will file for bankruptcy.
10. Moves to impeach Donald Trump will fail.

Here's to another year.

Squiffy.