Is the election going to be called this weekend?

The rumour mill has started. On the back of the revised 0.3% increase in GDP for 2009 Q4, it is possible that the PM will call an election for 25^th March. It avoids the Iraq inquiry appearance, it avoids the budget and he could overshadow David Cameron’s speech to the Tory Spring conference this weekend.

 

If I was Gordon Brown it’s what I’d do, but can the Labour Party afford it? Look at it this way, when has Gordon Brown avoided spending money because he couldn’t afford it? Exactly.

 

Squiffy.

 

The bullying - Taiwanese style

Hattip to Dizzy for this spot.

Squiffy.

What's going on with the polls?

There’s only been one poll since the excepts of Andrew Rawnsley’s book were released, showing the Tory lead steady at 6%. The lead may change in the next few days but let’s have a think about the trend since the beginning of 2010.

 

Since the beginning of the year the Tory lead has dropped, mainly due to an increase in the Labour position. Previously their polling was in the high twenties, but now has advanced to the low thirties. It’s possibly due to the end of the recession, maybe that the abortive coup steadied Gordon Brown’s position, or maybe due to the lack of a gaffe by team Brown in 2010.

 

Indeed, gaffes have been coming forth from the Tories. The confused message about how large the cuts would be this year, the unforgivable error about a misplaced decimal point, the crass death tax poster and the airbrushed David Cameron have all contributed to a sense of confusion and drift at CCHQ. It shows that Team Cameron are unsure whether to go positive or negative. My answer is go positive – the public needs some hope in these dire times. The Tories need to get a grip and unify their messages.

 

I think this may explain the figures. What I’m dismayed about, though, is how can 33% of the population think that it’s a good idea to have 5 more years hard Labour? I know that there is around a core of 23-24% of people who will always vote Labour, but what about the floating voters? Have they such short memories? Have they forgotten:

 

- the 10p tax

- the lack of planning for the wars

- the vast amount of increased tax

- the huge deficit

- the devaluation of our school exams

- the increase in violent crime

- the increase in inequality

- the destruction of the pension system

- the reduction of social mobility

- the 42 days detention

- the nanny state intervening everywhere

- the large data loss

- the complete breakdown of the immigration system

- the artificial dividing lines

- the doubling of council tax

- the broken communities

 

I could go on. Two things will determine the next 5 years, the first is the vast reduction of our deficit. How can we trust the man who created a huge structural deficit before going into recession to reduce it, when all he knows is how to spend? The second is the ‘vision thing’ for the succeeding years, what is the Labour party vision? What is Gordon Brown’s vision? He asked us to give him time to tell us – we’re still waiting. At least the Tory party have described a vision whereby people take control of their lives, services and communities.

 

Finally, I should confess that if Gordon Brown is PM in July I would seriously think of emigrating. I don’t think I could stand another 5 years of it!

 

Squiffy.

 

Disappointed.

Gordon Brown did not call an election. Hopefully he will soon, I want to get rid.

Squiffy.

James Purnell standing down - what does it say?

The news that James Purnell is to stand down as an MP in the forthcoming election is a major surprise. Firstly, he is one of the standard bearers for the New Labour project, secondly he may have been a future leader of the party.

 

The fact that he is no longer interested makes me think that he is giving up on Labour for a generation. Maybe he sees that the project is already lost and that Labour will make a left turn after the next election, which he expects them to lose.

 

It might have been better if he’d taken the opportunity to defect to the Tories, as a Blairite who pushed through so called Wisconsin styled benefit reform he may be able to fit in. He’d also have given Brown a bloody nose. Oh well!

 

Squiffy.

 

Labour to reveal election themes at the weekend

According to the BBC, here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8522025.stm, Labour are going to reveal their election themes at the weekend. Also, there are going to be a large number of cabinet members present. Given that the cabinet meets on a Thursday morning, could it be that GB has told his team that the election will be announced this weekend?

 

I think the game is going to be on, very soon.

 

Squiffy.

 

The Tories should not use negative campaigning

I completely agree with Daniel Finkelstein’s article in the Times today. In it he says that people have made their minds upon about Gordon Brown and now need a reason to vote Tory. The Tories should be sending out positive messages to give the populace enthusiasm.

 

The £20,000 death tax poster campaign was very negative and also speculative since it only attacked a possible tax and not one that has been put in place. It reminds me of the Labour posters of old, describing cuts of £35Bn in nurses and teachers when the Tories had only promised to reduce the increase in spending – thus no cuts. It was despicable of Labour then as the death tax poster is now. I expected better.

 

If you’re going to go negative, mention the many many things which Labour have promised and failed to deliver on. On Tax, mention the ‘no income tax rises’ pledge and then the many increases in NI. Mention the wider gap between rich and poor. Better still, don’t go negative and give positive messages.

 

Talk about bringing down the debt in a measured but effective way. Talk about no ID cards. Talk about remedies for Broken Britain. Talk about incentives for generating your own electricity. Talk about refunds for recycling, not taxes for rubbish. Talk about cuts in Council Tax. Bombard the country with positive policies on each billboard.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

What do we think of Brown's interview?

Watching the Piers Morgan interview last night was a strange affair. He came across well when discussing his family, you could not help to be touched by the segment when he talked about his children.

He looked different though when discussing politics, when he talked about being angry about Tony Blair becoming leader, he said "but the anger went away quite quickly". I wouldn't class the seething resentment of 10 years being "quite quickly". There were points when you wanted to shout at the screen, for instance when GB mentioned that he'd made many mistakes - any interviewer worth his salt would ask "what was your biggest mistake?".

It was clear that Piers Morgan is a family friend, and so would not give the PM a hard time. It does raise questions of political bias in the run up to an election. I understand that David Cameron has turned down a similar offer, but I'm sure that ITV has not offered a friendly interviewer to do it. I can't believe that the ex-editor of the Mirror would give as easy ride to the Tory leader as to the PM.

I expect GB's personal ratings to increase by a few points and maybe an extra percentage on the Labour share. I expect a totally different poll response when GB has to face tough questions from the public, Paxo & Humphreys during an election campaign. He has ducked these media contests in the past, so we'll see in a few weeks time. I can't wait.

Squiffy.

Euro-turn, Greece tests the mettle

Today, there will a conference of EU leaders to discuss what should happen to try to secure the Euro-zone and handle Greece’s budget deficit. It is also the first to be hosted by Herman von Rompuy.

 

Greece is running a very high deficit at 12.7% (similarly to the UK) of GDP but has little means of paying off the debt other than drastic and unpopular cuts. If they had a floating currency they could devalue and then inflate their economy, but the Euro closes that option for them.

 

The stakes are high. If at the end of today, the EU issues a communiqué saying that Greece has a plan of attack and the EU shows confidence in it then it will be clear that they  cannot agree on a plan of action and Greece is toast. If they say that they have a fund which could be used to aide Greece, the markets will test it until the fund has to be used. If they say that they have started aiding Greece, markets will judge the scale of help and decide whether to continue battering Greece or hold back.

 

It all depends on the market’s verdict on the help. Incidentally, the Maastrict treaty which set-up EMU made it illegal for the EU to help out countries which became debt ridden. Only bilateral agreements can be used, which in effect means Germany. I guess that the EU will neatly forget that, and who is going to prosecute?

 

If Greece is allowed to fall and default on its debts, the focus will switch to Spain and Portugal. It all reminds me of 1992 again. If the markets then test Italy, the Euro itself will be looking death in the face.

 

The original rules that set-up EMU, tried to enforce convergence between member states before allowing entry to the Euro-Zone and then had a Stability Pact to make sure the states kept within deficit limits of 3%. In practice, the entry requirements were fudged and the stability pact has not been enforced (why fine a country which is already running a large deficit?).

 

It now points to two directions, either the Euro-Zone collapses, or it pulls through but means that economic union needs to be much tighter to take control of fiscal policy.

 

Either way, we are much better off out of it.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

 

Why do I think the Tories will still win?

According to many commentators we are likely to have a hung Parliament after the election. Others point to a small Tory majority, but I believe the majority will be significant although not a landslide. Why though?

When the election is called, possibly on May 5th although I still think there is good chance that it will be early, there will be a bid test for our pollsters. This will be the first general election in which the Tories have started a good chance since 1992. That time the polls got it spectacularly wrong, but each election since has been a foregone conclusion and so many people have not paid much attention to the correlation between polls and outcome since.

I'm an avid reader of PoliticalBetting.com, a website which studies polls very closely. One significant fact is that in all the polls before the general election result in the last three GEs 29 out of 31 of them have overstated the Labour position, so much so that Mike Smithson who owns PoliticalBetting.com has a golden rule:

"The poll which has Labour in the weakest position is the likeliest to be most accurate".

Other tests of polls such as the European Elections have also shown this to be true. Political Betting does have its own pollster Angus Reid, which has consistently been putting the Tories at 40% and Labour at 24%, if that were true it would be a significant difference to the other polls. We'll only find out at the election!

There is a common wisdom that the Tories are not doing as well as Labour did before 1997, that's probably true. In 1997 people were really wanting to believe in new Labour, and because that promise has been broken we're not inclined to believe the promises so readily now.

There are factors which have given Labour an exaggerated position in the polls. I'll quickly go over these, firstly there is a well known fact that Labour voters are less likely to turn out than Tory voters, add in the fact that Labour is even less popular now and that may be more significant. Secondly, for some reason, people working in the public sector are over represented in the polls than their private sector counterparts, and they are more likely to be Labour voters. Thirdly, in previous elections there was major tactical voting to stop the Tories getting in. The pollsters generally ask questions about how they would like to vote, but there are changes when they are asked to vote 'in their constituency'. There is evidence that the tactical voting factor maybe about to be reversed.

Also, other data points to polls of the marginals (where the change of Government will come from) show a 5% increase in Tory lead over the national position.

From all these factors, the historical data, the overstating of Labour's position and the data from the marginals shows that it is likely again that the polls are going to be out by several percentage points. That's why I think the Tories will still win, and talk of hung parliaments should not come into play until the lead is roughly 4%.

Squiffy.


m th

Politics at its cyncial best

Yesterday’s announcement that Gordon Brown has now embraced the AV System for Westminster shows what a cynical politician he is. Just on the cusp of losing an election, he wants to change the electoral system. He says, this is because we need to renew our politics. Yes we do, people think that politicians are in it for themselves, they get too many perks and don’t represent their constituents well.

 

AV is not going to fix any of that, in fact it shows that Brown is doing it for himself (one of the main criticisms). He wants to entice the LibDems into a possible electoral pact after a hung parliament – that is his only motive. It’s as clear as the nose on your face. Cynicism at its height, he has never shown any  interest in voting reform in the past – so why now, three months before an election?

 

Squiffy.

 

Let's nail this notion of Gordon Brown's

Time and time again we hear that this is not the moment to start withdrawing support for the British Economy. With a hesitant recovery, they say, we should continue the support until the recovery fully takes hold.

So why are none of the interviewers asking the next follow-up question? It really infuriates me that they miss the obvious.

If this isn’t the time to withdraw the support why has January seen the withdrawal of the cut in VAT (at £12Bn – the largest Government ‘support’ package) and the stopping of the car scrappage scheme (the Government’s most successful ‘support’ package)?

The Government is saying one thing and doing the opposite – it’s hypocrisy – but no-one is pointing it out.

Get’s my goat.

Also, we are now the most indebted nation (according to Guido) as a percentage of GDP:

Squiffy.

Why do we do it? Murray fails to shine

Why do we do it, time and time again? We get up early, we watch as another British hopeful promises so much and then fails to deliver in Tennis.

Although Andy Murray looks like he could do it one day, we should have known the writing was on the wall when all the pundits said he would win. In the end a 3 set to love defeat.

I think I will stick to Formula 1, where Brits do win!

Squiffy.

The hand of history gives Gordie a slap in the face

Gordon Brown is trying desperately to show some success in leadership on difficult foreign policy and domestic issues. He remembers his success on the G20 summit and wants to replicate it, hence his big presence at Copenhagen, the Northern Ireland policing summit and now the Afghan summit.

 

Unfortunately his luck seems to have run out. There was no deal at Copenhagen, the Yemeni summit was a damp squib and yesterday all he got was a slap in the face and recriminations. It’s a far cry from Tony’s fantastic quote from the Good Friday agreement:

 

“This is no time for soundbites , you can leave them at home but I feel the hand of history on my shoulder”

 

No, Gordie, the summits will no longer work, and staying in Belfast for a few extra hours just looked like you were ducking PMQs to avoid answering questions on the 0.1% !

 

Squiffy.

 

Wow, we have amazing GDP growth of 0.1%

The latest GDP figures show that we have grown by 0.1% putting an end to the recession. It’s very weak though, and lends even more weight to my theory a few days ago that it may go negative again in Q1 2010, and lead to an earlier election.

 

Of course, these figures are an early estimate and may get revised up to show stronger growth. On the other hand, they could be revised down and show we are still in recession!

 

Squiffy.

 

Is it a March Election?

The collective wisdom seems to have settled on a May 6^th General Election, but a few things look like they might trigger an earlier election.

 

In the last few days Gordon Brown has offered to appear before the Chilcot inquiry. The letters have been published, and in response Chilcot says:

 

“The committee plans to conclude its hearings on Monday 8 February…That would mean, if you take up the offer, holding the hearings at the end of February or early March…..If, of course, in the meantime a General Election is called, we would need to postpone the hearing, as we have always made clear”.

 

Although Gordon Brown says he is relaxed about appearing before the inquiry, this may be bravado. Maybe he is worried that it would be a bad start to the Election Campaign. A General Election in March would be a get out clause.

 

Adding to the problems, Alistair Darling seems determined to start bringing the fiscal deficit down in the Budget. To avoid the bad headlines which would inevitably accompany the cuts and destroy one of Brown’s election tactics, or a possible resignation if Brown stops Darling getting his way this time, it makes sense to avoid having a budget.

 

We will also be likely to have briefly come out of recession before the we enter it again. To me it makes sense to go in March, will Brown jump though?

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

David Blunkett accuses the Tories of gerrymandering

David Blunkett has accused the Tories of planning to gerrymander future elections due to the plan to reduce the number of seats in Parliament. I know, that doesn’t make sense!

 

What he really means is that the plan to make each seat represent the same number of electors (i.e. having the same size constituency) will take away the current bias in the electoral system which means the Tories need a lead of 8% to get the same seats. The cheek of it!

 

He talks about poor people not being willing to vote – which obviously is going to hurt Labour more than the Tories, but that is a problem of the parties not enthusing poor people to vote and not a problem with the electoral system. Go and take a look at Obama’s campaign if you really want to tackle that!

 

He really wants to entrench the current bias in the system for years to come, i.e. gerrymander to keep Labour in power.

 

Squiffy.

 

Schumacher's mind tricks

It is not known whether Michael Schumacher will have outright No 1 status at Mercedes (one can guess that if there is any new kit – he’ll get it first though).

 

He was though supposed to get the Number 4 on his car, whereas Nico Rosberg was supposed to have 3. Traditionally, the lower number is for the number 1 in the team and I guess that Rosberg came to the team expecting to lead it after Button jumped ship to McLaren and expected to be adorned with “3”.

 

Apparently, Schumacher has a preference for odd numbers, funny that,  and has been granted a swap. He’s used to having Number 1 on his nosecone, maybe they should just try to get that for him.

 

I think the mind games for supremacy at Mercedes have started early!

 

Squiffy.

 

The double dip beckons

Today’s inflation figures show that CPI has risen by 1.0% in a month to 2.9%. I would have expected a rise like that to occur after January’s figures are produced (these will include the VAT rise), but not in December where all the retail outlets were targeting Christmas customers with sales.

 

It shows that the inflation we had before the recession (it was relatively high) has not been beaten out of the system by the downturn, and is ready to return with a vengeance. We’re not officially out of the recession yet, but the double dip is on the horizon. The effect of quantitative easing and VAT increases will combine to drive inflation up, meaning that the Bank Of England is likely to raise interest rates sooner than later. Add in the effect of the market’s view on our debt and the outlook looks bleak.

 

If we do to take hold get growth in Q4 2009, expect recession again in Q1 2010.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Brown's shameless grab for the middle

You’ve got to admire the sheer cheek of it. Gordon Brown is now a middle class warrior, declaring that he will protect the middle classes.

 

Er, come again? Wasn’t it Mr Brown who decimated the middle class pension pot with his cack handed raid on pension dividends. Or did he put NI contributions up time and time again? Or did he try to stop city academies? Or did he introduce IR35 legislation? Or did he introduce a 50% tax rate? Or did he increase stamp duty? Or did his Government force parents to register on the child register to take kids and friends to football matches?

 

All of these things. Tony Blair had a feel for the middle classes, so did Mandelson – they understand aspiration. Brown never has, so it’s a bit rich now for him to ask us to trust him.

 

I never will.

 

Squiffy.