F1: Disappearing up its own DRS

Today there's the news that from next year there will be permanent number for each driver. Fine, no problem.

The more disturbing news is that the final round will be awarded double points. Err, why? Why that one, why not the first one? Surely every round should be worth the same. I believe it's to try to make the championship go to the last round, but we seem to be getting further and further away from what F1 is supposed to be.

Last week there was talk of forcing cars to have two pitstops, limiting lots of strategy options. I know that Bernie mentioned a few years ago of shortcuts which you could use 3 times in a race - I thought he'd been taking the funny pills and there was no chance. I'm not so sure that it won't happen now.

What is happening to the sport I love? The measures recently to try to spice up the action have made it artificial and detract from true talent. Lewis Hamilton is the best overtaker in the business and yet everyone can overtake with DRS. The tyres are so marginal that no-one can be on it for more than a lap.

As soon as you start making it artificial, the flood gates open to more artificial measures. DRS, as Sir Humphrey would say, was the thin end of the wedge.

Please stop before I turn off.

Squiffy

All change in F1

So Sebastien Vettel is F1 World Champion again. Well done to him, but I'm now getting board. The season started well, but once Red Bull got into their stride it became a bit samey.

I'm now looking forward to next year. There's a lot of change with regards to the regulations, but there's a lot of driver moves. Raikkonen to Ferrari, Massa to Williams, possibly Hulkenburg to Lotus (although refusing to go for the last two races may have spiked that), Kevin Magnussen to McLaren, Perez to where? And what about Di Resta?

It's looking interesting. Now lets just have someone build a car better than Red Bull.

Squiffy.

Help to headline

The last week has seen a multitude of discussion pieces on the BBC asking whether the Help to Buy scheme is leading to housing bubble.

Partly this is due to the Government's decision to bring phase two forward. This means that the potential mortgagee only has to pay a 5% deposit and the Government will underwrite the next 20% but even so the bank or building society has to provide the remaining  95%.

Before the financial crisis there had been 95% mortgages, I bought my flat on one such mortgage in 2001 - way before the housing market over-heated. It was a little later that 100% mortgages became available, and even later that 125% mortgages became available which seems to make no sense apart from relying on house price inflation. It did become bizarre. But we are nowhere near that.

Without help to buy you would probably need 20% deposit to buy a house - which puts most property beyond most. If most people can't buy property and are stuck where they are, there will be no reason for new houses to be built unless they're mansions affordable by only people with a stash of cash. House prices would jump higher given the housing shortage.

The purpose behind help to buy is to enable people to jump on the housing ladder, get the market moving, give impetus to build and make everyone feel better.

The basis of debate is whether a more healthy housing market will lead to unsustainable housing inflation and a bubble. We know that it might if we don't build more houses, so we need to get building, but the housing market needs to be moving first. At least the Government has tried to relax planning rules to make it easier.

But do people really believe we're on the verge of a boom only 6 months after talk was of a triple dip and after 5 years of dire horrible news. It's way too early! Get a grip! The IMF revised our growth rates up to 1.4% this year and 1.9% next year, that is no way like boom territory (which is more like 3% against our trend rate).

Even if this did start to cause a boom, the Government can very quickly withdraw support for new mortgages and even close the scheme at a few days notice!

Which makes me think why is this all over the BBC? What would make the impartial BBC devote so much time to a boom where there isn't one? Can't understand it.

Squiffy.

David Cameron Speech: Verdict

I was away on the day of David Cameron's speech, so didn't cover it on the day but I thought I'd say a few words about the speech for completeness.

The speech was ok. He didn't have any new policies, but was trying to form an argument. It was reasonably effective, but didn't blow your socks off.

I know David Cameron is a good speaker, but he has done the best speeches when his back is against the wall. His speech for the leadership, and again when Gordon Brown was thinking of an immediate General Election were his best. They both were when he did the speech without notes. I believe he thinks this makes him look less Prime Ministerial, but he needs to inspire. Especially now, when he has an upbeat message.

Next year, he either needs to do a speech without notes (but none of the cheesy geekiness of Ed Miliband) or find a Sam Seabourne/Toby Zeigler combo to give his oratory the lift it needs.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband Speech: Verdict

Brilliantly delivered march to the left.

At the weekend Ed Miliband was asked if he was a socialist, and he said yes with enthusiasm. I thought it was just something to say in response. Today, we see that he really means it. When he was elected leader he said that New Labour was dead. It's not just dead, it has been hung, drawn and quartered. One Notion Labour is sucking spangles, wearing flares, and singing Slade whilst setting a course for the 1970's.

Ed Miliband grew up in the treasury, but obviously learnt nothing. Firstly, there is the £800m extra bank levy. Anyone knows that due to the necessity to hold enough capital to lend, say 10% at the most optimistic, this will mean £7.2Bn will be taken out of the economy. Really great way to stifle recovery.

Secondly, the energy freeze, whilst populist, is a recipe for disaster. We need so much investment in our energy supply to provide provision for the future and keep the lights on. Why would a company invest when under price controls? They won't. It all sounds like a mini Price and Incomes policy - I thought we'd moved so far away from that nonsense.

Ed, in a long hurrah for the NHS, gave a list of achievements under the last Labour Government then said that he would reverse the market based reforms which achieved them. A fully integrated 'NHS' was mentioned, but how? Just repeal a few laws. So more re-organisation. That'll please them.

Wrap-around childcare was a good policy, but how will it be paid for? There was loose talk of reorganising priorities. For quite an expensive policy, that's some ask!

Obviously, the 'bedroom tax' was ditched, and that was all the mention of welfare reform. Apart from 'we can do better than this'.

No real mention of economic policy. Apart from 'we can do better than this'.

No direct policy about immigration. Apart from 'we can do better than this'. Oh apart from the fact that companies had to come up with an apprenticeship for an under-trained Brit. I'm not sure many companies will do this, so may be that is their immigration policy!

A real march to the left. Michael Foot would be proud. Tony Blair is probably filling in his Tory membership papers right now. Can there be a new SDP?

Anyway, until next week.

Squiffy.

Nick Clegg Speech: Verdict

Today was Nick Clegg's speech to the Lib Dem conference.

The task at conference was to look ahead to the next election and prepare some policies for negotiation at a possible hung parliament. It was probably the best conference for Nick Clegg, the muttering about his leadership has gone and there doesn't look like there will be a challenge. Vince Cable made an arse of himself as usual, if I was Nick Clegg I would sack him as soon as possible.

The style of the speech was nothing extraordinary and you could tell where he wanted his applause by how loud his voice would go.

The speech itself was fine, again nothing extraordinary, the usual platitudes and plagues on both your houses. He delivered it well but there were no surprises. The much trailed free school meals for infants was applauded, but no explanation about the inconsistency with the removal of universal benefits for others.

It irked that he was saying that recovery wouldn't have happened without the Lib Dems, and that he set the purpose of Government to be social mobility. I think the Tories have a greater stand out claim for these. The Lib Dem's purpose has been to stop certain policies.

It was notable that many times he mentioned Liberal purposes and traditions, I don't think he mentioned the Social Democrat element once. It shows where he's coming from. Definitely from the Orange book wing. It's this that's making the Cable morose. Although he's saying that he's equi-distant, I do think there is going to be difficulties working with Ed Miliband.

So, the verdict was: ok, nothing special.

Squiffy.

Ed Miliband in a pickle

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult for the younger Miliband, but mainly of his own making!

Firstly the spat with the unions caused by Falkirk selection process promised Miliband his 'Clause 4' moment when he made his speech saying that things had to change. If Miliband can achieve significant change to Labour's relationship with the unions it would certainly go down as a brilliant coup, alongside Kinnock's 1985 conference ousting of militant.

Since the announcement, though, there appears to have been some backtracking. The members of Falkirk Labour party who were suspended have been reinstated, and the report into the affair has been kept under lock and key. The threats of reduced funding from GMB seems to have shaken the resolve. His speech to the TUC was underwhelming.

If the link was truly reformed, the funding would be cut from the unions as union members were opted in - just like Ed Miliband has suggested. Also, though, the block vote at conference would have to be ditched and the unions would lose their vote in the leadership elections. For this to happen though, these changes would have to be passed by a vote and I think this is unlikely. Each MP voting would be wondering about the funds to their local party and their election warchest. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. It's for this reason that I think the backtracking will continue. In such circumstances, Ed Miliband will be seen as weak.


Secondly, I was dismayed by Ed Miliband's choice on the Syria vote. In meetings with the PM he was shown intelligence and given access to military opinions. He asked for reassurances from the PM, and was given them. After leaving the meetings he asked for further reassurances and was given them too, he asked for a second vote and was given it. He was given all he wanted and yet when it came to the crunch he still voted against. It was cowardly and he put party unity above principle and I could not be more ashamed of a leader of one of our major parties.

Afterwards it looked like a bit of a victory for Ed Miliband, but I think in retrospect this will be when he seen at his weakest. Not able to muster his troops only able to follow them. Duplicitous and not to be trusted is about the politest thing I could say. I would have hoped for better.


It is against this background that the next few months will be seen. He has to make a stirring speech at the conference, but without any policies and against a recovering economy will he be able to show much vision? The polls have tightened and the Tories are looking more confident and united than they have for some time. It's looking bad, can Ed turn it around?

Squiffy.

It's Red Egg

Today Ed Miliband was hit by eggs. It's pretty symbolic of the Labour party in the last few weeks, as MP after commentator after MP has thrown eggy suggestions to the leader of the opposition.

It has been a turnaround in fortunes for the two parties, the first change since the Omnishambles budget. The polls have narrowed but not quite turned yet, but there is a new trend setting in and Mr Miliband needs to change the narrative quickly. The story at the moment is of drift, no clear message and wavering policies.

A shadow reshuffle is in the offing and shadow ministers have been silent over the summer and when they have spoken up, like Chris Bryant, they've made a hash of it. The rumour is that Ed Miliband has been focussing on his conference speech, but a speech rarely changes the national mood, and while he has been silent the Government has been making hay (which is usually the opposition's job in summer).

It appears that the uptick in the economy is obliterating the Labour message of 'cutting too fast and too soon' and the public are now swinging behind the cuts more firmly. It's funny that the biggest cuts were enacted this April and so if the cuts were going to have an effect on the economy, you'd expect a contraction - in fact there was further expansion. It seems confidence and Europe have been a bigger factor. Anyway, the new Labour message is about the cost of living. They won't tell you has been getting worse since 2005, never mind the biggest recession since the depression.

The next few weeks and months will be interesting...

Just as an aside, the BBC are referring to today's German growth figures of 0.7% as strong, but referred to the UK's of 0.6% as weak. Bias? I couldn't say.

Squiffy.

It is summer, so Felipe Massa's position is under threat

For the third year running Felipe Massa's seat is under threat. The rumour this year is that Ferrari may decide to lure Kimi Raikkonen away from Lotus to replace the Brazilian. This would be a strange turnaround, after all Ferrari paid Raikkonen off to get him out of his contract to bring Fernando Alonso in. They chose Massa over Raikkonen.

It has become transparently clear, though, that Massa is on borrowed time. Either his injury, or the latest selection of tyres has stopped him being ultimately competitive and there has only been one occasion when he has threatened for a win, when he was forced aside as Rob Smedley delivered the line 'Fernando is faster than you'.

The yearly discussion over whether Massa should retain the Ferrari seat is as predictable as snow messing up the railways. It's clear that Massa is not pushing Alonso, he won't be in a position to challenge for the championship and Ferrari's constructors championship points are being hampered by the Number 2's side of the garage. They need a stronger driver.

Whether that is Raikkonen I don't know. He likes it at Lotus where they let him live his life as he wants. Also, he is also wanted by Red Bull, and the Alonso to Red Bull, Raikkonen to Ferrari rumours may be just bargaining tools from both sides of the Red Bull/Raikkonen deal. In which case Ferrari should go for Di Resta, Hulkenburg or Bianchi.

It would be good to see Raikkonen at Red Bull to give Vettel a good challenge, but I think Lotus needs him more than he needs them so they may try hard to convince him to stay. Also there is the fact that what is the Red Bull young driver programme for if it doesn't deliver drivers into the senior team. Daniel Ricciardo is a good driver and we still have to see whether he has what it takes - so to encourage other young drivers maybe they should keep the faith.

Where does this leave Massa? He's still a good driver, and maybe he could end up at Lotus or a third stint at Sauber. But it's time to end the yearly Massa-hunt.

Squiffy.

Lies, Damned lies, and statistical revisions

As I predicted in an earlier post, the double dip recession has now vanished. The revisions have removed them from history. At the same time, and even worse for Labour, the first recession has been revised to be even worse. So the recovery is harder to take hold.

Earlier in the week we heard that the deficit had slightly increased for 2012/13, and Labour were all over it. But remember revisions! The 2011/12 deficit was revised down more than the 2012/13 deficit and so it appeared to increase, but just like 2011/12 was revised down this year so can 2012/13 next year keeping the downward trend. The good news is that the deficit is being revised down rather than up.

Things seem to be improving at the moment, and I think it will continue. I expect growth to be nearer 1.5% this year, and the deficit to reduce further than official expectations. I really hope so!


Squiffy.

We escaped triple dip, we could still escape double dip

Last year we entered a double dip recession. Or did we?

Like a bureaucratic tardis, the ONS may be about to revise the figures for Q4 2011, Q1 and Q2 2012 so that the double dip becomes a figment of our imagination. It looks like one quarter only has to be revised upwards from - 0.07 to break the double dip.

If it does happen I hope the news outlets, BBC specifically, will give the same prominence to the news as it did to the news of the imaginary double dip... Some hope!

Squiffy.

Let UKIP be the protest vote, and not the vote of the right

Tonight and tomorrow we'll find out how well UKIP did in the local elections. I think they'll get just over 20 percent.

People of the left, and right and centre are voting for UKIP as a protest, which is fine. There always needs to be a party to represent protest, it used to be the Lib Dems but not now they're in Government. But anyone who classifies themselves as someone of the right and seriously thoughtful, should consider the policies and implications.

A vote for UKIP is a vote for tax cuts and extra spending to the tune of £60 a year. Margaret Thatcher wanted to balance the books, and Nigel Farage is not her heir. They will accelerate this country's descent into a debt abys. If the only reason is for a vote for a UK exit from the EU, then the likely outcome is a Labour Government which will not give you a chance to have your say. If you are centre right vote Tory, not for the fantasists.

Squiffy

Is Labour about to make a big error?

This morning's Indy has a report saying that Labour are going to go into the next election promising higher spending than the Tories.

They may be able to make the case but it's a difficult one for most people to understand. The Tories claim that you can't borrow yourself out of a debt crisis and it is a simple message that most people understand (even though its not always true).

I think, given the economic climate, that it would be a bad mistake. Most people think Labour spent too much before the last election, and have lost some economic credibility. To not try to regain that credibility is an error.

It is looking like they might make the 1992 election mistake again, when they promised higher taxes against the backdrop of recession.

Could this be the moment the polls turn?

Squiffy.


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George Galloway: Is this the most odious man in Britain today?

George Galloway has been on our TV screens today decrying that PMQs have be cancelled for this week, as many politicians will be at Baroness Thatcher's funeral. It's the latest outpouring of bile from the MP since saying they should 'tramp the dirt down', and from the party laughingly calling itself Respect.


He even had the temerity to have a go saying that she was a friend of dictators. Er, hello? Is this the same George Galloway who told Saddam Hussein that "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability" and went on to justify the invasion of Kuwait.

The hypocracy and nastiness of the man knows no bounds. To now try to stop PMQs being cancelled, in order to stop MPs attending the funeral is beyond spiteful. He's a disgrace. I hope the people of Bradford can finally see what mistake they made when they elected this odious individual.

Squiffy.

The F1 season is under way, and the fun continues

We've now had three races and three winners. Similar pattern to last year: drivers complaining about tyres, no team showing outright consistent pace and Webber with bad luck.

The Ferrari is definitely looking like it will give the Red Bull a run this year. The Mercedes is fast over one lap but inconsistent over a race distance and the McLaren has some major problems.

It's funny how relaxed Lewis Hamilton is now looking, especially when he sees the problems McLaren are having. It will seem that he made the right decision, though I think it is probably too early to tell. It does seem, however, that McLaren only make good cars every other year, with one exception. The good cars for the last decade have been in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012, so maybe it was astute to jump ship for 2013!

I do hope that Lewis will win a few races this year, he's only 12 points behind and maybe they can make a championship challenge if they can make a couple of tenths for the race. He would certainly be surprised.

In Malaysia we had the Vettel/Webber falling out. It has been coming for a while. It is clear that the two have not got on for years and now it is all out war. I do now expect them to trip each other up, such is the animosity. It could be their undoing for this year, and maybe this is Alonso's chance.

It's a real shame that Williams haven't made the step forward I hoped, I really want them back in the big league consistently.

Anyway, just some idle thoughts.

Squiffy.

Mrs T: The best peace time PM we've had in the last century

It's a sad day, Lady Thatcher has died. In my opinion, she was the best PM we've had since World War 2.

Her achievements as the first female leader of a major political party and then the first PM are too numerous to mention, but I will give the headlines: Ending the cold war, winning the Falklands war, smashing the power of the unions, privatising loss making industries, lowering tax rates, bringing in an entrepreneur economy, beating inflation and lastly reforming the Labour party.

There will be many tributes and some people will be spiteful (which says more about them than the great Lady). For me, she was the other lady in my life aside from my mother while I was growing up. I saw the country go from a clapped out basket-case, the sick-man of Europe, to a European giant alongside German and France. She put the Great back into Britain.

Of course she made mistakes. The Poll tax shouldn't have happened, trying to be fair by making everyone have a share in making their local council work for them, she forgot about the ability to pay. She shouldn't have touched it. She should have tackled welfare, which is now being tackled 30 years later. Grant maintained schools should have been a first term priority and then they would have been bedded down much earlier, before Labour reversed them then brought them back as Academies.

She became too strident with colleagues and when she did one last time their patience broke, on top of the Poll tax unpopularity she was defeated by her own party.

The great that she did will far outweigh these mistakes for they were and can be overcome. The turning around of Britain will never be forgotten. Of this she can be proud.

Rest in peace Mrs T, I'm raising a glass to the life of a brilliant politician and true patriot.

Squiffy.

Morrissey says gays don't go to war

<p>I love the Smiths, and I also think that Morrissey is a genius with lyrics. As a Tory, I would no doubt get a load of crap my way for liking the Smiths from members of band, but how would I do as gay? I believe in self responsibility and great shoes! Buying your own shots and being fabulous while knocking them back. But I also thought the Smiths talked to me when I felt lonely, an odd one out, while I was coming out. </p>
<p>I'm still an odd one out, a gay Tory. Being both loved and hated by members of the band I revere.<br></p>
<p>Which brings me to Morrissey's latest pronouncement.

Maybe he thinks that the modern day gay man, out, proud and happy with himself will not go to war, and he might be on to something. But some of the most bloodthirsty people in history have been closeted gays who think showing masculinity by killing folk will show they're real men. The ultimate diversion tactic, has slain many people. Think Alexander the Great and you get the idea. In Britain we have Edward II and William II as examples as gay men not afraid to go to war.

The argument should not be that gays don't go to war, but gays comfortable with themselves don't go to war. There's not much worse than closeted gays, as history in politics and religion shows. Hypocrisy and bigotry abound.

Gays are as strong and angry as everyone else, until they find the thing that makes them angry. Mr Morrissey, please weave that into your next lyric.

Squiffy

Eastleigh: the aftermath

After the Eastleigh by-election, there will be a lot of guff spoken. It's the same after every election bar the general.

The Lib Dems did well to win, they are great local campaigners and once they get a foothold in an area they are hard to shift! UKIP did spectacularly well to come from nowhere to second. It was disappointing for the Tories and Labour.

That's the headlines. Underneath though it's quite interesting. UKIP have now become the party of protest, which should be worrying for Labour. If the public run for a party with only one recognisable politician and policy when the Government is so unpopular, and that person is not the leader of the opposition then the opposition is doing something wrong. The Labour party made no headway, and they should be in these circumstances.

It's a bit worrying for the Tories, but they are the prime governing party and so it would generally be unusual for them to win a seat when in midterm unpopularity. The Chris Huhne and Lord Rennard affairs didn't seem to have much effect and did not benefit the Tories. The Lib Dems may do worse in a general election though.

I would be surprised to see UKIP use this as a real springboard for national elections. They are still a party of protest with one known popular policy. The rest of the policies do not stand up to scrutiny, lots of tax cuts and more spending make the Labour party look economically sound. Voters thinking of going for UKIP who actually want a referendum would be better going for David Cameron's deal of a referendum after the next election.

The Tories should be worried that UKIP will pull enough votes to put Ed Miliband in number 10. And UKIPs should think again because Ed Miliband will never give a referendum (because he'll lose). Tory headbangers should beware a lurch to the right though, it will never win over the electorate.

Squiffy.

David Cameron has played a blinder

<p>The last few weeks David Cameron has been on top form, he made a fantastic speech on Europe with the promise of a referendum, he's said a big yes to gay marriage and he's secured an EU budget cut. These are big moments for the country's future economically and socially. </p>
<p>The referendum pledge is a slow burner that will be a big problem for Labour and Lib Dems whilst uniting the Tory benches. Ed Miliband has a big problem on his hands, and he has been very quiet recently. I think he'll have to agree to the referendum himself after some gnashing of teeth.

The PM also pushed through the gay marriage vote against vocal opposition and this will be remembered in years to come. He is a social liberal and that's exactly where the modern Tory party needs to be.

Finally, he delivered a budget cut when all were predicting a small rise for the EU. All those saying that Britain is isolated can now reevaluate. Ed Miliband wants to claim some credit, but we know his vote for a reduction was cynical and that he would have surrendered, just like Tony Blair!

Overall, and a great month for the PM.

Squiffy

2013 predictions: a bit late

It's been a very busy January for me and so I've not had any time to blog recently. I will try to resume now with more regular blog posts. And to start off, lets have a look at my predictions for the remaining 11 months.

1. The economy will really start to recover, growing by 1% overall this year.
2. Along with the economy, the Government's fortunes will improve slightly. Polls at the end of the year will be around 38% Labour, 34% Tory, 12% LibDem, 8% UKIP.
3. Chris Huhne will not go to prison, but he will not return to Government either.
4. Fernando Alonso will win the World Championship, from Sebastien Vettel.
5. Lewis Hamilton will win at least one race this year in his new Mercedes.
6. Andrew Mitchell will be exonerated of 'plebgate' and the officer who made the allegations will be found out. Mr Mitchell will return to Government in a mini reshuffle in the late summer.
7. Kate Middleton's baby will be a girl and will carry the name of Elizabeth and Diana in some order.
8. There will be a monetary scandal involving a cabinet minister forcing them to resign.
9. David Miliband will agree to join the Labour front bench.
10. The Eurozone will have a fresh crisis in September when everyone is convinced the problems have been solved.

Let's see what comes true.

Squiffy.

Last year's predictions

Every year I make some predictions and then see how well I do. Here's what I predicted for 2012 and how I mark it.

1. At least one country, probably Greece, will exit the Euro. The Euro will survive though. 0 points.
2. Ed Miliband will have another bad year, though the talk will be of being replaced by Yvette Cooper. 0 points
3. Britain will win around 24 golds at the Olympics. 1 point, quite close
4. The Diamond Jubilee will be a great success and provide a bounce to the coalition of around 5% in the opinion polls. 1/2 point.
5. Sebastien Vettel will win his third World Championship, closely from Lewis Hamilton. 1 point
6. Chris Huhne will resign from the Government when facing charges of speeding & perjury. 1 point
7. A reshuffle will see David Laws make a return to Government. 1 point
8. In the Euro 2012 championship, England will get knocked out in the quarter finals. 1 point
9. Mitt Romney will face Barrack Obama in the presidential election, and Obama will win. 1 point
10. The polls will remain similar to now, Tories 39%, Labour 42%, LibDem 12%. 1/2 point, Labour correct, Tories and LDs overestimated
11. Boris will win the London Mayoral election, defeating Ken by 6%. 1 point

8 points out of 11, not bad really.

Tomorrow, I'll do my 2013 predictions.

Squiffy.