Why is it okay to hate Tories?

There are rules in this country against inciting hatred. It can lead to a custodial sentence.

It's ok to hate Tories though. I know that because on the BBC News Quiz, two panellists announced their hatred in the first five minutes. This is the unbiased license fee funded BBC. Left wing comedians think it's ok to hate forty percent of the population.

Right wing people don't doubt the motives of left wing people just their methods, the reverse is not true. The 'compassionate' left show real hatred. How nice.

Squiffy.

"The poor didn't cause this problem..."

The title of this post is a statement often used when left wingers complain about austerity, and it is obviously true that the poor did not directly cause the financial crisis.

It must be noted, however, that we were running one of the largest structural deficits of the developed world before the financial crisis. Had we not run a deficit we may have been able to get y without an austerity drive. The reason for the deficit was due to excessive Government spending, and where was all this spending targeted? Quite rightly at the poor and needy.

The last Government created many tax credits and systems which meant that more people and families became dependent on Government benefits. Unfortunately, this means that when there is a squeeze, because the country has run out of money, the benefits are going to have to be squeezed too as it has become a larger part of Government spending.

The present Government wants to take people out of benefits but tax them less, so that they keep more of their own money before depending on the state for handouts. The Universal credit will be a great way of making work pay too.

Just don't always take simple phrases at face value.

Squiffy.

Go out and vote for your Police Commissioner

In the next few days there will be elections for police commissioners. Going from having an invisible police authority to an identifiable person holding the police to account is a big change and one that I support.

Unfortunately there will be a lot of politicos calling it a failure, mainly due to the fact that turn-out will be low. It's pretty much guaranteed as it's not been well publicised and I blame the Government for this, even though it's their policy. And I blame the Lib Dems for having the election in November rather than next May at the same time as local elections. It costs more and will then be seen as a failure on low turn-out. Sometimes the LDs are the most cynical of all!

Don't believe when they tell you that it is a failure. Over the next years each police commissioner will get air time in your local areas. They will get blamed for lots of problems and there will be lots of independent minded people stepping out to challenge at the next elections. Mark my words that turn out will be higher next time round, it will build and these positions will become more important.

We don't have elections in London but I implore you to find out who is standing who represents your views and make sure you go out to vote. It will be important.

Squiffy.

Some common sense is needed...otherwise it's just reckless

Mark Reckless MP has launched his proposal to reduce the EU budget. The Prime Minister's position is to call for a real terms freeze.

Personally, I'd love the see the EU budget reduced but I'd don't think it is possible. There are too many other countries which will not accept the position whereas there's quite a few influential countries who will stick by the real term freeze. We have to be realistic and if we go in with an unrealistic prospect we will just have to use the veto. If we veto then the budget will go up two percent, and we run the risk of future budgets being decided by qualified majority voting.

It's also playing into the Labour party hands. They've leapt onto this as a way of causing problems for the PM, they're not a real believer in lower budgets - otherwise they wouldn't have built up a huge structural deficit. Also at the last negotiation, they willingly gave up £5 Bn annual rebate for a supposed reduction of the CAP budget - which of course was never going to happen. They're just being cynical.

So let's be serious, stick to the freeze and hope we can push it through.We're going to have to reserve our vetos for the point when we have to threaten to stop further integration without a looser arrangement for the UK within an EEC type Europe.

We have to play this smart.

Squiffy.

If it's Merkel To Cameron, you're muppets - then bring it on!

It's been reported that Angela Merkel has compared David Cameron and Britain to Statler and Waldorf from the muppets. We're always grumbling and being obstructive.

Too right! Yes, we grumble. The reason we grumble is that no-one under the age of 50 has had a say on the terms of our EU membership, and those that did get to vote in the 1975 referendum believed they were voting to stay in an economic union. Only a few in 1975 believed we were on a never ending story of integration and submission to an unelected bureaucracy.

We are now at a crunch point. Our politicians in the UK are also coming to that conclusion. We now have an administration which on the whole wants to change the status quo. Although the core of the EU is trying to head to some federal system, probably without consulting the EU population, as is their way. We know we don't want it.

Finally the EU leaders, such as the German Chancellor, have realised that they can't just shove what they want past the UK PM and have come to the conclusion that there will need to be a two speed Europe. There's even talk of a separate budget for Eurozone members.

Hurrah, it's what a lot of us has been saying for a long time. Finally the EU elite is coming into line with the general population. It's taken about 20 years, but sense may finally be about to break out. We may finally get to be in a sphere like the old EEC, pity the poor countries which will not have a say.

It will still take several years though!

Squiffy.

Ed Balls: Zero Based Policy

Exactly. A way to have no policy.

Ed Balls has announced the adoption of Stella Creasy's policy of deciding Government spending by starting at zero and justifying every line item of spending. Brilliant, I love the policy - exactly the right thing to do. It should happen every time a Government comes in.

But, and it's a big but. I don't believe Ed Balls sincerity to the policy. I don't believe that he thinks that every item of public spending needs to be justified in this way. I think it is a happy diversion for every question about what Labour would cut. Remember this when Ed Balls is interviewed, the question will come "What would you cut?", the answer will come "I've announced that we will look through every existing spending decision on its merits, we will not announce our plans until we have looked through the books".

It is the perfect device in order to have no policy. So, call my cynical, but I don't believe that Spender Balls is really committed to reducing the deficit and justifying every single element of spending.

Squiffy.

Lewis to Mercedes: Good or Bad

Only time will tell.

I feel a little sad that Lewis Hamilton has decided to move from McLaren to Mercedes. I know a lot of Lewis fans will also, indeed it's a little like Nigel Mansell moving from Williams to Ferrari for 1989 or Jensen Button moving from Brawn to McLaren for 2010. Feels like the end of an era, and indeed it is. The all British team (just about) is over.

It feels like the wrong decision. McLaren creates cars that wins GPs nearly every year, it knows how to win, and at the moment it has the fastest car - so why would he leave?

Look at it from Lewis's point of view, though, and you may come to some different conclusions. McLaren has not won the drivers championship since 2008 (Brawn in 2009), and has not won the constructors championship since 1999 (Brawn in 2009). This year McLaren have had the best car for most of the season, barring a few races mid-season, and yet, even with Lewis driving magnificently, Lewis is 52 points behind Fernando Alonso in the championship. Pit-stop cock ups, bad performance on wet tyres, a major mess up in Barcelona qualifying, and a little unreliability have nearly destroyed his championship.

Even though McLaren know how to win races, they are a bit rusty on winning championships - the days of 1989 are long gone. Ross Brawn has much more recent experience of running a consistent championship contender.

Look to the future. In 2014 there is a new engine formula and the Mercedes engine could be the best one and gelled with a Mercedes chassis, designed so well for it, could be the class of the field. McLaren will be a customer team and might not have so privileged access to the data. There's rumours of Vodafone leaving McLaren too, probably hastened by Lewis's departure. Mercedes has also hired some big names this year; Aldo Costa from Ferrari and Bob Bell from Renault. They could be just about to set the world alight, whereas McLaren tend to build a good car every other year.

I think it's likely that the McLaren and Mercedes offers were pretty similar in monetary terms with a little more branding opportunities at Mercedes, but I don't think this is the crux of Lewis's motivation to move. An article on Autosport struck me as very pertinent. The essence of the article is that Lewis has grown up with McLaren, it's a parent-child relationship and now it's time for Lewis to break out and become an 'adult'. A good point made was that in 2007 Hamilton was on the verge of winning the championship on his first attempt in China and was kept out on very visible thread-bare tyres. I remember shouting at the TV screen for 5 laps that he should go into the pits and McLaren kept him out. That must rankle with him, he should have definitely won that championship. We know Lewis believes he should have won more than his solitary championship.

The relationship has soured in the last few years a little. There was the lying row in Australia a few years back, and there has been friction about Lewis's use of twitter. You may call this the teen years.

Once the parent-child relationship is formed, it's pretty difficult to break free (as any child returning to the parents would know) until you leave home. And as anyone knows, you can always return home and who knows Lewis may one day return home, calling the shots, as did Nigel Mansell.

But as I say, only time will tell.

Squiffy.

Forza Monza

or Force Monza!

I was lucky to be at the Italian GP two weekends ago. It was spectacular. Deep in a country park you find this incredible circuit of speed.

I managed to view the old banking - which would be terrifying in a modern car, or anything to be honest! The atmosphere was electric, the weather was hot, the tifosi devoted and action unstoppable.

Enough superlatives. It was better organised than Silverstone, you didn't need to wait more than 5 minutes waiting for a bus to take you between Monza train station and circuit, likewise on the way back. I was surprised that McLaren had a great deal of support - lots of Lewis and Jenson fans. It was great to be able to invade the track afterwards - and funny to watch guys taking away the polystyrene bollards at the first corner.

It was fantastic that Lewis won too, so shortly after his family bereavement. He was on it all weekend, and deserved the win.

A brilliant weekend. As Murray used to say, Faaantastic.

Squiffy.

Clegg was right to apologise

Nick Clegg has apologised for the tuition fees debacle.

Not for the U-turn, or for the policy, but for the fact that he promised to remove tuition fees in the first place. It is, finally, a moment when the Lib Dem leader has fully grown up. Hopefully the Lib Dems will follow.

For all my life, I have got used to the third party making rash promises, not tied down to the realities of possible Government. It was annoying to see the holier than thou, purer than pure attitude through the years - promising anything without a care. Safe in the knowledge that it would come to nothing. Every election they would say they would go into it to win and not talk about coalitions.

The last election taught a valuable lesson. You must have realistic costed policies. You must never make an absolute promise you are not certain to keep. As the third party your main chance is through coalitions so you need to take other party's manifestos into account. Nick Clegg has learnt this lesson, but I suspect the sandal wearers will have trouble adjusting to this, as they have to the nature of coalition (likewise the right wing Tory headbangers).

Unfortunately, I don't expect the grown up attitude to continue into the Lib Dem conference! There will be more grandstanding and unrealism.

Squiffy.

Virgin: What short memories people have!

The Downing Street petition to have Virgin Rail re-instated as the franchise holder of the West Coast Main Line has now reached 100,000 people. That's pretty impressive, especially for a private company involved in railways.

It does amaze me, however, why so many people have jumped on the bandwagon. It was only 10 years ago or so, that Virgin had a really bad name when it came to railways. It was the company cited by comedians and others when trying to point out that the railways were in a mess. Now it's all turned around, which is fantastic for Virgin.

I must say that I was always impressed by Virgin's commitment to give a good service on the troublesome West Coast. So, I am a little sad that Virgin lost out. The worry is that First Group will give a worse service, after all it's been panned for the service on the Great Western line. But one has to remember that the service provided is dependent on the state of the track, and whereas the West Coast has had a lot of investment, the Great Western has been neglected. This also explain's Virgin's turnaround in fortunes.

People are also wistful about the old British Rail. They also forget how bad it was. Years of under investment with old trains and bad service. The British Rail soggy sandwich was its emblem! Privatisation enabled new investors to enter. Now we ride new trains. New services like Great Central give variance to the old ways of doing things. It's not a coincidence that passengers numbers increased year on year since privatisation in 1995. We now have the most number of passenger journeys on railways since World War 2, probably ever:

So let's have a little perspective! Good luck to Virgin and First Group in the future. Thankfully the Great Western is about to get a lot if investment.Hopefully Virgin can take on the Great Western franchise!

Squiffy

Resolve

Today the borrowing figures showed that we borrowed £600 million for the last month, in fact for July we'd normally see a surplus. It gave me a jolt, but we need to have some resolve. Remember that you cannot borrow yourself out of debt.

The economy will come good, the GDP figures do not add up, employment is growing. If only George Michael had sung Faith at the Olympics closing ceremony and not his new one. We need to keep the faith.

Squiffy.

Olympics...

Just a short note to say "How brilliant was that?". London put on one hell of a show and I loved every minute of it.

Squiffy

Clegg does the dirty

Today, I am mainly being disgusted with Nick Clegg. After confirming that the Lords legislation has been shelved, he also stated that the Lib Dems would vote against the equalisation of constituencies. He needed to make up some reason and so it was that a reduction in MPs could not be allowed now that the Lords would not have greater legitimacy. What cock.

As I said in an earlier post, the boundary changes were the trade for an AV vote and that the coalition agreement only said that proposals would be brought forward for an elected chamber. Mr Clegg is being entirely duplicitous. The bad legislation he brought forward was the reason for the Tory backbenchers rebelling.

After a promising start to the coalition, I'm now fed up with the double dealing Lib Dems. They are dishonourable. It may be time to bring forward an election and see them be decimated. Will be difficult, but only a truly Tory Government can get us out of this mess.

Squiffy

0.7% drop, don't believe it

The shock figures today, I'm pretty damn sure are incorrect. One has only to detect the mood of the country, although subdued we are growing.

The employment figures are going up, the unemployment figures are going down, inflation is falling. The individual growth surveys are showing a country in growth not contraction.

The GDP figures will be revised as always, but having an initial figure so out of whack with the end figure is extremely unhelpful to a real growth strategy. The GDP figures can become a self fulfilling prophecy. Remember in the latter half of 2009 the initial figure was -0.4% but was revised to +0.4%!

The scandal of this is that we cannot trust these figures and yet they set the mood of the nation. There should be an urgent review.

Squiffy.

Travails of a commuter: Olympic special

I have previously ranted about the awfulness of mindless tube announcements destroying my morning commute. It got worse on Friday.

Dear Transport for London,

I have to take the Jubilee line to work, and unfortunately it is the key line for the Olympics. I knew that it would become busier, and at the beginning of last week I started to notice it a bit. I expect the next few weeks to be more difficult and crowded, and I accepted it as part of the downside to having this spectacular event.

What I didn't counter was that every journey was going to be intolerably punctuated and interrupted by infernal announcements telling me to find a different route. After every third station the tube driver came on the tannoy to tell me to avoid Baker Street, Westminster, Waterloo, London Bridge, Canary Wharf and Stratford. The announcement went on for two minutes. I live on the line and work at one of the stations to avoid, but I don't have much choice.

I'm a commuter, which is why I travel at 7.30 am and 6 pm along with 98% of others travelling at that time. We are adults with enough intelligence to keep down jobs. We know the Olympics are around the corner, we know the trains will be busier, we will find easier ways to get to work if necessary. It's what we do day in day out. 

It's going to be difficult enough, please don't make the minutes on the tube reading the newspaper even more awful by talking our internal voices - let us live in peace. Only tell us when it's up the spout again.

Yours with hands over my ears,

Squiffy.

Lords Reform: Ditch the bill

Tonight there will be a vote on the programme motion for reform of the House of Lords. This is in effect a vote on whether to bring in a guillotine on the debate, in this case for 10 days. There are many Tory rebels, and Labour are voting against.

If I were an MP, I'd be voting against too. On principle, such a large constitutional change should have significant debate as this is the largest change since joining the EEC.

Nick Clegg, the Lib Dems and pro-reform Tories are doing themselves a disservice with their arguments. Firstly they say that it was in all the party's manifestos. True, they all mentioned reform but not these details (450 Senators, 15 year terms, PR). Secondly they say that it was in the coalition agreement, but the agreement only stated that they would bring forward proposals to seek consensus. That doesn't mean legislation if there isn't consensus - the fact that whipping is needed shows there is no consensus. Thirdly, they argue tit for tat with the proposal to equalise constituency boundaries, no no no, the quid pro quo was the AV referendum and you've used that.

I completely disagree with election terms being 15 years. That's nearly half someone's working life! Terms should never be that long, what if you get a dud? We still haven't got powers of recall for dodgy MPs so I don't think measures for Senators would be handled well either.

The relative powers of the Commons and new Senate has not been settled with the Commons as primus. Flash forward 15 years and it is easy to imagine Lib Dem Senators talking about them having more electoral validity due to PR being their election method (even if that is wrong).

I also disagree with party lists driven by party leaders, we'll just get second rate MP wannabees. What about the expertise we have gathered in the upper house, the beauty of the current system is that the combined wisdom of many appointed Lords helps bring knowledge to our Parliament which is sadly lost from the Commons.

So please vote this down.

My revised solution is as follows. Each group within the Lords; Tories, Lib Dems, Labour, Crossbenchers have internal elections before a General Election of existing members and prospective new members. These elections give rise to a preferential list of candidates for each group.

At the General Election, the groups are awarded Lordships based on the proportion of votes cast for each party. The Crossbenchers are allocated from the percentage of electorate who did not vote at the General Election.

I think this solution enables an element of proportionality to make sure no one has a majority. It enables Crossbenchers to have a good sizeable representation. The internal election makes sure that it is not in the hands of the party leaders, enabling experts to remain on the list if they are effective in the House. Also, being based on the General Election results but not directly elected should put the Lordships in their place when it comes to primacy.

Hey presto, keeping all the elements that are good and stopping the patronage nonsense. If only anyone would listen. David, are you there?

Squiffy.

Michael Gove: the best Education Secretary in half a century

While some members of this Government have been plodders and others less than inspirational, a few have really shone. One is Eric Pickles, another is Iain Duncan Smith and finally Michael Gove.

He is a controversial figure, and took a big misstep in his first few months when he announced the schools which would not receive money in the schools building fund. Since then, though, he has been mightily impressive. I find the ideas of free schools inspirational, the vastly increasing numbers of academies a great idea and Kenneth Bakers University Technical College's and fantastic solution to vocational courses.

The most impressive aspect of Michael Gove's secretaryship is his absolute adherence to rigour, standards, discipline and the sense that failure is not acceptable. After years of fashionable educationalists and liberal thought driving our schools, we have had declining literacy, numeracy and behavioural standards whilst our exams have led to hugely inflated results. Standards have dropped, exams are not as difficult as they once were and, without denigrating the achievements of our bright young pupils, I don't believe our children are vastly more clever than they were thirty years ago.

I don't think going back to the 11 plus is a great idea, but streaming at an early age with the facility to move between the streams is good. A new set of exams, whether they are called O-levels or something else, is fine to replace the now discredited GCSEs, as long as rigour is re-introduced. There are already different levels of exams, for instance Maths had three sets of exams (P, Q & R) when I took the second year of the exams with the brighter pupils taking two (P & Q) and other pupils taking the other two (Q & R). I think there are foundation exams too now.

All power to Mr Gove. He is interested in what works, what prepares our young for work and isn't fussed if it shows our young passing less exams (making the Government look bad). An inspiration.

Squiffy.

Tough for the Cleggies

After the Lib Dems failure to back Jeremy Hunt, watch what happens when the next Lib Dem minister finds himself in trouble. Labour will know to play the same card, and this time the Lib Dems will be reliant on Tory MPs. Somehow I think their support is not guaranteed! Treason and treachery were two words I saw on Tory MP tweets.

Squiffy.

It's here, the weekend when the Euro might start to disintegrate

On Sunday, the Greeks go to the polls to determine their place in Europe. A win for the left of Alexis Tsipras will mean they renege on their austerity commitments and head to Euro exit. A win for New Democracy means more of the same. It's for that reason that I, unusually, want the left to win. We need a game changer to sort out the Euromess. A Greek friends thinks the centre right will win, but I'm not so sure.

It's been a bad week for the Eurozone. The cack handed way in which they added capital to the Spanish banks by adding to Spain's debt has brought Spain to the brink. Yesterday their bond yields hit the unsustainable 7 percent. Now it's only a matter of time before the country's first bailout (as opposed to the bank bailout). It was such a stupid way to do it. The next target is now Italy, watch their yields rise over the next two weeks.

If there was ever an explanation for why we're in such a mess, the Spanish bank bailout was it. Just bloody dumb.

This weekend the endgame approacheth. We may be about to witness a very swift end to the badly conceived Euro project and we can put the Euro elites back in their box. But not before the people of Europe suffer terribly.

Squiffy.

The Euro: Nearly the end of the beginning

It looks like we are nearing the end of the beginning of the Euro crisis. It is patently clear that the Eurozone governments are incapable of creating conditions in which Greece can remain, they also don't seem to be able to see that Greece will definitely leave.

The main players have had two meetings this week, the G8 and the EU leaders. Neither meeting came up with anything of note. There is even division at the top, between France and Germany. With every passing day it seems that they don't have a clue.

So, Greece leaving is the end of the beginning of the crisis, and without having a middle it will then be the beginning of the end.

A few weeks ago I would have thought that Greece leaving would be a good thing to enable the rest of the Eurozone to remain intact. The last few weeks has shown me not to be so sure. I'm now beginning to think that the contagion effect is now probable and that Greece leaving could precipitate a quick fall for some other countries. If that happens, then I'm not sure, now, that the Euro could survive. The example of other countries leaving the Euro, devaluing and then becoming more competitive could be the last nail in the coffin for the Euro.

Robert Peston's documentary detailing the launch of the Euro has shown that this project should have been strangled at birth - and was destined to fail. The Euro is dysfunctional, and it's now shown that the EU is dysfunctional too. So, if the Euro does not survive it is also likely that the EU will splinter. I can now foresee referenda happening across the EU, for leaving the Euro and some for leaving the EU. Certainly I think there is a 60% chance the UK will leave in the next 10 years. We may even re-found a new EEC on the original basis but without ever closer integration - certainly something that most people thought we were joining in the first place.

The next year is going to be fast paced, chaotic and dangerous. Let's hope we can come out of it ok, but I suspect there will be a lot of pain.

 Squiffy.

Why stimulus will not work

I watched the Sunday Politics today, and the head to head between the ideas of stimulus versus austerity. Stimulus will nearly always enable more economic growth, after all how could the pumping of money by the Government into the economy not feed into higher GDP figures.

The point was made that by putting money into projects to enable employment will give greater tax revenue. True, but at what cost? If you think about the money going into projects some will be spent on supplier companies, materials, and financing jobs which means that people have money to spend in the wider economy and then can pay tax back to the Government. It sounds great, but consider that some of the money will be lost in bureaucracy, some will be sent to foreign companies, some will be put into bank accounts by thrifty employees in difficult times. So not all the money spent can be recovered. It will only be recovered if it spurs confidence in the economy, so that private companies invest - only then can it be truly successful.

The last Labour Government did provide a stimulus, which created a burst of 2% growth, but when the stimulus was removed the growth disappeared. The key factor was that the Eurozone crisis occurred, and business confidence had vanished. The stimulus effect had been wiped out. That's the reason why spending more now will not help, the Eurozone crisis is still with us with a fresh bout of instability. Spending merely adds to the debt burden.

We have to stick to a programme of reducing the deficit. If the Eurozone problems are resolved, maybe a stimulus will be able to work within a framework of increasing business confidence. Until then, stimulus will only provide the mirage of growth and is really throwing good money after bad.

Squiffy.

Well done Pastor

Congratulations to Pastor Maldonado on his first F1 victory. I have been a big fan of the Williams team since I first became interested in the sport. As a big supporter of Nigel Mansell, the team enabled him to fight for titles and always allowed the two drivers to fight it out. Frank Williams is a true racer and so I could not be happier that the team has returned to the top step.

It was heart breaking to see the team at the back of the grid last year, but now that the alliance with Renault has been rekindled Williams may be turning the corner. It has been too long since Juan Pablo's victory at Brazil in 2004, and now 8 years of hurt can be put aside.

It was a shock, though, to see the fire in the Williams pit after the race. It seems that a member of the Williams team is in hospital and I hope that the injuries are not too serious, and that the team member recovers well. The fire will bring KERS into the spotlight and whether extra safety measures are needed.

Enjoy the victory Pastor, you drove brilliantly and surprised the hell out of me. I h0ope the fire will not take the shine off the fantastic victory today.

Squiffy

Well done Boris. Pull your socks up Cameron.

Now that the local elections are over, we can see that the Coalition got a drubbing and Boris' popularity/Ken's unpopularity gave the Tories their only real victory. I think Boris' victory is a good thing. I'd like him to have a few more ideas, but generally the ideas are better and more believable than Ken's. Mr Johnson is a different figure from 4 years ago. He is more serious now although still has the possibility to entertain. It was a shame that Mr Livingstone could not be gracious in defeat, but hopefully we have seen the last of him now! The overall local results were bad for the Coalition partners. I don't think it was a platform for Labour victory and the situation is recoverable for the Government. It certainly looks worse for the Lib Dems as their local base is becoming ever more diminished. I don't think they will be decimated though and can recover in future elections. The Tories don't look too bad on 31% of the projected national vote, given the austerity measures and the recent bad months. But, the Tories only succeed in Government if they look competent and the last few months has shown them wanting. I think, again, this is recoverable and they have not had another ERM moment. The Tories do need to get on top of the competence issue, though, and not make silly mistakes (such as the date of Abu Qatada's last possible appeal). A change of political weather can happen, Boris' election, a Hollande victory quickly turning to French economic disaster, the GDP figures being revised up and future growth can do it. At the moment, it has been raining too much on the Coalition but Labour does not have a decent rival offering and their progress is a sign of dissatisfaction. So Cameron, don't rush to the right but cut down the silly mistakes, and be seen to be straining everything for growth within your austerity plans and it could come good. Squiffy.

Local Elections live blog 2012

For as long as I stay awake...


Squiffy.

Will a Hollande victory be good for Cameron?

On Sunday France may get a new President. As I've said before, it would be better for France if Sarkozy gets re-elected. It looks, however, that François Hollande will win.

A socialist victory may be a marvellous fillip for the Prime Minister. Just as the Government here is looking a little shaky, with bad economic results spreading from the Euro-zone, could a left-wing victory in France show us what we may have experienced if Gordon Brown had won the 2010 election. High taxes subsidising extra spending, and along with more borrowing could give us an idea of the current Ed Balls plan too.

My hunch is that France will get a very quick shock from the ratings agencies, and and plunge the Euro-zone into more problems. Expect stock markets around the world to plummet on Monday and a large amount of lashing out.

It could get messy, but may be more so for the two Eds.

Squiffy.

France is ready to vote

Tomorrow is the first round in the French Presidential election. It's pretty certain that Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande will go through to the final round.

Let me just say that I wouldn't want to be in France if Hollande wins. His policies of reopening the EU stability pact from December, a 75% top rate of tax and reimposing the 35 hour working week are steps backward. The ratings agencies will have a field day and France will be put under significant pressure.

He's not great and shows petulance, but Sarkozy is France's only reasonable option!

Squiffy.

DC: Time to scream and shout

It has been a turbulent time for the Coalition. Starting with Donorgate, we've had the Pasty tax, the Granny tax, the Caravan tax, the Charity tax, Jerry cans, and finally the dodgy date.

A very bad month, but I think the most of those issues were related to the budget and most of the budget measures were correct. There was bad presentation from the Government. A lot of the controversial measures came out of a desire to simplify taxes (whilst raising a little). The fact that luxury food is supposed to have VAT and other food has no VAT causes quite a few edge cases. One such being take away food, and it seems right that all take away food has VAT and the fact that pasties did not have VAT but Fish & Chips does seems slightly bizarre.

On the Granny tax, why should older people have a different personal allowance to younger workers? It makes no sense to me, older people don't have to pay National Insurance so they already have an advantage. This last year, the allowance has gone up greatly and the proposal is that the differential is gradually fazed out from next year while the normal personal allowance is raised to the same level. It's not a huge figure.

Why should static caravans not have VAT where mobile caravans do have VAT? Those designed as year round houses are still exempt.

The Charity tax is one that perturbs me. I don't like the fact that Charities will be hit by having less money, but it was a revelation to me that rich benefactors could put all their money into Charities and avoid paying income tax at all. It seems fair to pay income tax first and then make charitable donations like most people.

So I still think the budget was fair overall. Which takes me to the unforced errors. Donorgate was plain stupidity by a treasurer who should know better, I don't believe there would have been undue influence. Political funding is a completely separate issue, but its fair to say that those who have money have a great chance to have their views heard as long as they don't buy influence.

The possible fuel strike was badly handled. It made sense to warn people to fill up once a strike day had been announced, but it was cack handed to panic people before the date was set! The Jerry can issue was silly, Francis Maude should be more careful.

The whole issue around Abu Qatada and the date at which he could lodge an appeal is serious. Serious in that it shows how useless the Home Office is. I can't understand why they couldn't wait a day to be sure. I wonder, given the previous month, whether there was some pressure for good headlines. It has spectacularly backfired. It may be a resigning issue for Theresa May because she is ultimately responsible for her department and she should have urged caution before rushing to the House of Commons when there was doubt about the day. The home office is a curse that may have just snaffled its latest victim!

Ultimately, Qatada will probably always have appealed anyway so the bigger picture has not really changed by the date issue but it is adding to a certain narrative. At the moment the Government is looking decidedly amateur. Too many unforced errors and once the idea of a reputation for incompetence takes hold, it will be difficult to get it back. It's what killed the last Tory Government on 16 September 1992.

It's time for David Cameron to bang the table, read the riot act, and make sure his team are double checking every announcement they make.

While I'm at it, DC needs to look after his backbenchers a little more. He is not loved by the right of the party, which is a significant section and he alienates them at his peril. He should not force House of Lords reform down their throats because it could be very divisive. Proposals have been brought forward, as mentioned in the Coalition agreement. It should be a free vote. The Lib Dems should not make a quid pro quo for the boundary review, they had that for the AV vote - they can't use their capital twice!

Squiffy.

Budget 2012

Today's budget  will be intiguing. In the same way that Gordon Brown used to lay traps for the Tories, George Osborne has laid similar mines for Labour. The headline which the Government would like us to talk about is the increase in the personal tax allowance, but they must realise that the headlines will be grabbed by the 50% tax rate being reduced to 45%.

My own thoughts are that 50% is too high, and practice tells us that anyone earning enough to be in the high tax bracket also has the means to employ tax accountants who can use schemes to reduce the exposure to much less.  Unfortunately for many, they cannot comprehend that you get get more money out of the rich by having lower tax rates. Experience from the 80's when tax was reduced from 83% to 40% on the richest shows that this  truth exists, even if it is hard to grasp!

So, it's economically a good idea to have a competitive high tax band. Politically, though, it is difficult to explain and now the Government is on the hook to try to get the message across. The 50% tax rate is easy to understand, a lower rate bringing in more is difficult and so many people will think that this is the Tories being generous to their friends rather than trying to create a competitive tax system to out a booster under the economy.

Which brings us to the trap. Will Labour go into the next election promising to increase the rate back to 50%, maybe from a lower 40% rate? It is an axiom of modern times that parties lose elections by promising tax rises, so will they risk it even if it on the top earners? A party promising higher taxes on one section of society will be seen as a tax raiser on all.

The most disappointing aspect of the budget was the freezing of allowances for pensioners. This maybe a bigger story over the next few days and may come back to bite the Chancellor.

Squiffy.

F1 2012 is here

It's the start of the 2012 season. I normally give a bit of info on the teams, and this year is no different.

Rule changes
There's two major technical changes and two sporting changes for this year. The blown diffusers at the rear of the car have been banned, this is where the exhausts exited into the underfloor diffuser and help to suck air through the underfloor giving extra downforce. This has been outlawed by new regulations positioning the exhausts at the back of the sidepods facing upwards, but the clever teams are still trying to use the gases to mix with the air over the sidepods and down into the diffuser. The less ambitious teams are merely blowing onto the rear wing.

The other major change is a very visible one. To stop the front nose from puncturing a cockpit at a dangerous height in an accident, the nose has been lowered. Some teams have kept a higher cockpit to channel more air under the chassis, which has lead to a step at the front of the car. I think they look ugly, and F1 cars should not be ugly! Thankfully, McLaren have a different design philosophy and have a normal swooping nose, so on looks alone they deserve to win! The really ugly duckling is the Ferrari, no Ferrari should be that ugly and it reminds me of the 1996 F310.

On the sporting side, during a safety car period the lapped cars will be able to unlap themselves before the restart. This should enable us to see the front cars battling it out at the restart. The one reg change which will catch the drivers out is a change to overtaking. After going off-line to overtake, the overtaker must allow room for the trailing car to make the next corner on-line. This would have stopped Hamilton pulling back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch out quite a few drivers, so watch out Lewis!

Red Bull
The new Red Bull RB8 doesn't look like it has any trick devices, but does look like an evolution of last year's RB7. I expect it to be fast, and formidable in Sebastian Vettel's hands. He is probably going to be the one to beat, yet again, and I still don't see his team mate providing a significant challenge. Mark Webber has to provide some faster performances this year, otherwise, if Lewis is back in form, Red Bull will find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.

McLaren
One of two cars to not feature the ugly platypus nose. The team has had a much easier winter testing than last year, when the octopus exhaust lead to the team not being able to complete a race distance. The car looks fast in faster corners, reliable and predictable. I expect McLaren to be providing the biggest challenge to Red Bull again but even more so this year. If Lewis is back in form and on top of the new sporting regulations then he could provide a great challenge this year, but I also expect Jensen Button to have some great races and challenge as well. If not Vettel as champion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

Ferrari
Ferrari look to be on the back foot. The car is ugly and looks like it has a very narrow performance window, which is a big problem in these no re-fueling days. This could be gruelling for the Red Team, after clearing out some of the old guard last year and being more adventurous this year. Luca di-Montezemolo is expecting a championship, and we could be witnessing a resurgence of the chaotic Ferrari politics of the 80s and early 90s.

Fernando Alonso will get the best out of the car, but I can't see this car mounting the top step any time soon. For Felipe Massa it is a make or break year, another year like last year and he will be out. A top team cannot afford to be basing its points on only one driver. If he can get a grip on the tyres then maybe he can recapture old form, otherwise he'll be looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.

Mercedes
The car is looking much better than previous years, and maybe about to challenge the top two. It looks like the car has a new 'f-duct' like device, which scoops air from the rear wing when DRS is enabled, down through the end plates and onto the lower rear wing. Perfectly legal to do this, as the driver has not directly moved to enable the 'f-duct'. It does still look like the Mercedes is slightly heavier on its tyres than Red Bull or McLaren, but will still be fast.

If the car is fast then expect to see Michael Schumacher re-discover his previous form and be more at the sharp end. It will be fascinating to watch the intra-team battle in such circumstances, as both Schumacher and Nico Rosberg are desperate to win a race.

Lotus
There is now only one Lotus team, the old Renault, in JPS style livery. It looks fast in the hands of returnee Kimi Raikonnen, and I expect it to be on the podium occassionally. Possibly even an outside chance of a race win! The team did have a bump in winter testing when a suspension rod failed at the beginning of the second 4 day test in Barcelona meaning that Lotus packed up and went home. We'll have to see whether Romain Grosjean can account himself better than his earlier Renault half season, after Nelson Piquet Jr was booted out.

Force India
The Force India is looking good, with a Mercedes engine, McLaren power train and two great young drivers, I expect this team to be regularly in the points. The car looks more refined than previous years and I'm expecting great things from Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenburg. It will be an interesting intra-team battle, and both will be desperate to get the upper hand.

Sauber
The car looks decent, if nothing special. This small team generally punches above its weight, but they weren't as impressive last year as the year before and there's nothing to convince me that they have discovered anything to push them forward this year. The two drivers Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both good, and Kamui can do some great overtaking manouevres. I expect them to make it into Q3 regularly and gain points. We'll have to see if the traditional Sauber drop off in performance occurs again this year.

Toro Rosso
The junior Red Bull team surprised many in the off-season by discarding both Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. Maybe not wise to discard both, but the junior team is looking to bring on new talent and they couldn't see world champions in either driver. In comes Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Verne. Again, the intra-team battle will be interesting to witness as both drivers try to shine enough to be promoted to the senior team in case Mark Webber retires next year.

The car is again looking like a competent mid-fielder, but will need an epic performance to show Sebastien Vettel, circa 2008, race winning pace.

Williams
One of my favourite teams, it was really disappointing to see them drop back to ninth. Gone are the heydays of the 80s and 90s, but with a renewed relationship with Renault maybe the team can drag itself back up the front of the midfield. Unfortunately, without an experienced driver it may prove difficult. The incoming Bruno Senna has impressed from time to time and I would hope to see some consistent performances from Ayrton's nephew. I'm not convinced by Pastor Maldonado, here more due to money than talent. I hope to be proved wrong.

Caterham
The old Lotus team, now rebranded as Caterham, will be looking to join the midfield. With KERS added, maybe they'll reach the tail end of the midfield but I still expect there to be no opportunities for points. Jarno Trulli was replaced as a driver by ex-Renault Vitaly Petrov after the first winter test, and that is probably a good idea. Trulli has not been impressive in the last few years and has been beaten comprehensively by Heikki Kovalainen.

HRT
No running in the winter, this team is again on the back foot. Bringing Pedro de la Rosa back into racing, means this season has more older drivers than usual. With Narain Karthekayan, I'm not expecting anything other than tail enders again.

Marussia
A better line up than HRT, Timo Glock and newcomer Charles Pic should pull the car ahead. The car looks better than most due to the non-ugly nose, but I don't expect to be surprised by the old Virgin team. Expect it to be fighting it out with HRT for best of the last.


That's it, I expect it to be Sebastian vs Lewis vs Jenson vs Schumacher.

Squiffy.

this season have some of the oldest drivers looking for a new job - maybe mid-season.



hampion then Button looks good to make his second championship.

find tough opposition from McLaren for the constructor's championship.



back on-line when passing Kamui Kobayashiat Spa next year. I'm expecting it catch
hjhjk

How to reform the Lords?

In the Times the other day was a brilliant idea by former Blair speechwriter, Phil Collins, about how to reform the Lords.

The basis of the idea was following on from Billy Bragg's idea of a proportional seat count related to percentage of the vote at the last General election.    The parties would nominate people onto a priority list and those at the top would be elected. The twist that Phil added was that the percentage of election turnout would determine how many seats the parties got, the percentage who did not vote will form the crossbenchers.

To see how this works in practice, with a new chamber of 300 seats. The last election on a turnout of 65%, would give the Tories 70 seats, Labour 57, Lib Dems 45 and the Crossbenchers would be on 105. There would be no majorities, and it would have the option to keep some religious representation and keep the possibilities of having talented people who are not related to parties.

Brilliant.

Squiffy.

Andrew Neil is the country's best national interviewer

At the moment, it may seem that politicos cannot get away from Andrew Neil. He seems to be taking over BBC's coverage of politics. I don't mind that.

I know that some of my friends can't stand him, but that's probably due to their left leaning adherance to anything related to Rupert Murdoch being inherently bad. Mr Neil's old editorship of The Sunday Times explains their dislike. I completely disagree, he has been quite critical of Mr Murdoch recently.

As political interviewers go, though, he is thorough, well researched, knowledgeable, and tries to cut through to the crux of an issue. I like Jeremy Paxman and John Humphries, but they do tend to get hung up on catching interviewee's out rather than getting anything useful out from them. It's entertaining,  but generates more heat than light.

As an aside, I'd love to see a return to terrestial TV of the kind of interviews that Brian Walden used to do, a weekly 1 hour in-depth interview with a prominent politician. I used to love the yearly one between Mr Walden, another great interviewer, and Mrs Thatcher. Who could forget the repeated line, 'He was unassailable' when describing Nigel Lawson's resignation.

Squiffy

They want Greece to leave

But they daren't say so. They now ask for things which they dont expect to be fulfilled only fot Greece to surprise them, so thry add an extra condition. Been done many times before, we can spot it!

Good luck with that.

Squiffy

Ken vs Boris

Ken Livingston pulled slightly ahead in the polls for London Mayor last year. This has primarily been due to his promise to cut tube fares by 7% and bus fares by 11%. I can't think where is going to get the money from, as I said here.

Channel 4 News regularly does fact checks on claims by politicians and they've had a crack at Ken's claims. In summary, they don't think he'll be able to finance his fare cuts without cuts in investment. For details see here.

After this news was reported, Ken's supporters were tweeting loudly, so Channel 4 had another go at a claim:

"Fares might be soaring, but the service is plummeting! Delays and line closures have become a daily part of Londoners’ lives."

The details are here, but suffice to say that Boris comes out much better, see the diagram on the right.

Squiffy.

The lynch mob strikes again

Sometimes you have to marvel at the short-termism and idiocy that infects our politics. Since the announcement of Stephen Hester's bonus there has been an outcry, the media, MPs and opposition whipped up a storm and last night Mr Hester felt he had to refuse the bonus.

The stupidity behind the decision stems from what we are asking Mr Hester to do. He came in to run RBS after Fred Goodwin left in disgrace in 2008. His task is to rid the RBS books of the bad debt, bring back profitability and put the bank into a position to be sold off to re-coup the taxpayers money.

He's doing the first of those two items during a terrible economic climate. The share price is bouncing along, similarly to other banks. How are we going to re-coup the taxpayers money? The share price has to rise, valuing the company higher, and enabling the shares to be sold off for a higher price.

Which brings me back to the bonus. The bonus was often quoted as £963,000, but the bonus wasn't cash but shares to the value of £963,000. The shares were not exercisable until 2014, meaning he can't sell the shares now. We need the share price to rise, Mr Hester's bonus would have increased at the same time. The personal monetary incentive for Mr Hester was therefore tied to the future performance of the bank. We benefit if he benefits.

Now he's been stripped of the bonus, what's his incentive? Only his reputation is now staked, but who would blame him from walking away from the job when his compensation package is the subject of the lynch mob. And if he did, who would want to step in - when you could get a banking job in the private sector without the hassle.

We've just shot ourselves in the foot.

As an aside Chuka Umunna, the Labour shadow Business Secretary, has been saying that RBS employees should be treated as public sector employees. No, completely disagree. If RBS is going to become profitable and get the taxpayer its money back it is going to need to compete against the private banks. Mr Umunna's plan would lead to a demoralised staff, leaving in droves and the ultimate failure of RBS.

Squiffy.

The proposed Scottish referendum

Today Alex Salmond announced what he wants the referendum question to be: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?".

I say 'what he wants' rather than saying that the question is a fait accompli. I cannot see David Cameron agreeing to such a question as I'm sure he will think it should mention the UK in some way. I expect the final question to be something like: "Do you agree that Scotland should become independent from the United Kingdom?".

Without mentioning the UK the question is slightly biased as it does not even try to infer what the implications would be. The Electoral Commission would, no doubt, not allow the question to stand.

Squiffy.

No growth, and don't hold your breath

The GDP figures showed a disappointing fall by 0.2%. Of course there will be the usual calls for stimulus measures such as tax cuts, more public jobs, temporary job creation schemes.

It will all be for nought. There will be no recovery until the Eurozone crisis is sorted out. Companies have cash to invest, but no confidence. All measures to try to give a boost will be throwing money away until confidence returns. Confidence will not return until the Eurozone crisis is resolved.

Our growth completely and utterly depends upon Angela Merkel and the other Eurozone leaders coming up with a plan that the market believes. When the market believes it, confidence will return and hey presto, our growth will start to spurt.

Squiffy.

1 trillion and counting

Today marks the day when we have £1 trillion debt. It probably won't stop growing until it reaches £1.4 trillion and will probably never fall below £1 trillion again.

The national debt has grown hugely in recent years. To think that it was only £413 billion in 1997 after all those years beforehand and it's more then doubled in 15 years.

The early years of the Labour government made good and reduced the debt to £385 billion before reverting to type, letting rip and allowing it to expand to £618 by the end of 2007 - the growth years. That's an extra £200 billion borrowed while we were making hay!

The structural debt had become built in as many more people became dependent or assisted by the welfare state and the public sector bloated. Add in the bank bailout and recession and bang, £1 trillion debt.

A somber day for the economy, growth figures tomorrow and Greece and the EU on a knife edge. Welcome to 2012!

Squiffy.

Gripe of the day: Toilet guys

By toilet guy, I mean those blokes who lurk in toilets with a saucer, a hand towel, and cheap cologne - not something less wholesome.

Why has this happened to our loos? Who thought it would be a good idea to have a guy hanging around the loos expecting to get a pound for turning a tap on for you and handing you some paper towel? It really isn't a chore for me to do it myself! I've lived for nearly 40 years on this planet knowing how to wash and dry my hands and I don't need help when in some dingy pub toilet.

In fact I really hate it. Sometimes you feel under pressure to tip them, and are tempted to forego the handwashing so as not to have to face the man with his hand out. My friends and I actively avoid going to pubs who host toilet guys, so let that be a tip to any publicans tempted to employ such a man.

Squiffy.

The Iron Lady

Have just watched the Iron Lady. To say that Meryl Streep made a great performance would be to understate the brilliance of it.

As a diary of a frail woman dealing with dementia it was also a great film, but as the biopic of one of the most important women of the 20th Century it is lacking.

As an unbelievably supportive husband, it is hard to imagine Dennis asking Mrs T to put family before running for Tory leadership.

There are also several inaccuracies, such as rubbish piling up whilst the Tory party was in Government during 70-74, it was the winter of 78-79. Apart from a small summary of her time as PM, apart from the Falklands, it whizzes through the years.

I'm not sure the incident which caused Geoffrey Howe to resign is accurately reflected, there is no mention of the previous EU summit which so annoyed her.

It's a good film with a great performance about an old woman with dementia dealing with the loss of her beloved husband. As a story about Mrs T and her years in power, it could be much better.

Squiffy.

The London Mayoral Campaign has truly started

This morning on the way to the tube, a couple of people were trying to thrust some leaflets at me. The leaflets were from the Ken Livingstone Mayoral campaign.

It was a good choice by Ken's team to run the leaflets today, on a day when tube fares are going up by 6%, as the leaflets re-iterated Ken's promise to reduce fares by 7%.

The question is where is Ken going to get the money from? It's an old political question, but all the more potent now that we have less money to play with. I don't believe the Livingstone campaign has really answered this yet, the money they have mentioned has already been spent by Transport for London, according to Mayor Boris.

The current Mayor has restricted some programmes so that the council tax precept for the Greater London Authority has remained flat for the last three years - a great help at the present time. I think that if Ken is elected, fares will go down for one year only, then shoot-up to pay for a deficit in the GLA's finances, along with a hike in the council tax precept.

I don't believe politicians promising something for nothing, so Ken has much more to do.

Squiffy.

2012 Predictions

Last year was poor, let's see how well I can do this year. So here's the 2012 predictions...

1. At least one country, probably Greece, will exit the Euro. The Euro will survive though.
2. Ed Miliband will have another bad year, though the talk will be of being replaced by Yvette Cooper.
3. Britain will win around 24 golds at the Olympics.
4. The Diamond Jubilee will be a great success and provide a bounce to the coalition of around 5% in the opinion polls.
5. Sebastien Vettel will win his third World Championship, closely from Lewis Hamilton.
6. Chris Huhne will resign from the Government when facing charges of speeding & perjury.
7. A reshuffle will see David Laws make a return to Government.
8. In the Euro 2012 championship, England will get knocked out in the quarter finals.
9. Mitt Romney will face Barrack Obama in the presidential election, and Obama will win.
10. The polls will remain similar to now, Tories 39%, Labour 42%, LibDem 12%.
11. Boris will win the London Mayoral election, defeating Ken by 6%.

Everyone have a great year.

Squiffy.

2011 Predictions revisited

2011 is over, let's see how badly I did...

David Laws will make an early return to Government, in a reshuffle sometime in January or February. 0 points.

The AV referendum will be narrowly lost, but on a low turnout. 1/2 point - it wasn't so narrow

Vince Cable will walk out of the Government. 0 points

Ed Miliband will have a poor year despite the polls and there will be a whispering campaign around to bring his brother back. 1 point

Diane Abbott will walk out of her shadow portfolio. 0 points

The coordinated strikes threatened for Easter will be a damp squib compared to the jollity of the Royal Wedding. 1/2 point.

Sebastien Vettel will be F1 World Champion again, just beating Lewis Hamilton. 1/2 point - Vettel won, but by a healthy margin over Button

Michael Schumacher will walk away from F1 mid-way through the year. 0 points

CPI Inflation will hit 4.0%, but we will have annual growth of 1.8%. 1/2 point, CPI did hit 4%, growth was worse than 1.8%

The parties will end the year on: 39% Tories, 42% Labour, 12% LibDem. 1 point.

Overall 4 points, which is pretty bad. Let's see what next year brings...

Squiffy.