Cameron shows confidence at PMQs

It was the first PMQs for David Cameron and he did very well. Harriet Harman was better than expected, although I think she will be tempted to ask questions which mainly interest her rather than the country as a whole.

DC was assured and answered HH's last question with a good put down. He even managed to answer some questions, which is a novelty for PMQ's!

Squiffy.

Alternative vote referendum is on

So, we learn that the alternative vote referendum is going ahead, along with a reduction in the size of constituencies.

It was disappointing that the language was no better than under Labour. Ken Clarke, noticably, did not walk backwards after giving the speech to the Queen.

Squiffy.

The state opening of Parliament

I'm on holiday but still managing to watch the state opening of Parliament. The day when new meets old; new proposed laws meets the tradition of centuries.

I believe there will be 21 bills, including the most important aspects to control the deficit and set up free schools.

Squiffy.

Ed Balls does the usual - dividing lines

Blinky Balls has come out against the Iraq war. Bit late I know, and for someone with loads of influence over his then master - Gordon Brown - it is possible that he could hadve stopped Britain's involvement by getting Brown to oppose the invasion.

Call me a silly old sceptic but am I sensing one more of the famous Brown/Balls dividing lines. Possibly, he probably hadn't factored in that the other Ed would join the party!

Squiffy.

Why take on the 1922 committee?

I don't think I understand why DC had to take on the Tory 1922 Backbench committee. Maybe he suspects that it will cause him massive problems in the coalition or that Graham Brady, the likely new chairman, will make waves. By trying to make the 1922 a meeting of the whole Parliamentary Conservative Party he's made the awkward squad more stubborn and more likely to vote him down on a significant issue.

I don't understand why he is taking on his own party in which sections are still smarting from having their red meat removed from the manifesto menu. The 1922 committee will re-form under a new name and maybe go underground and cause more problems. He may have a much grander plan which he is playing out like chess, but he is playing with Tory fire. It won't be long before they turn...

Squiffy.

Early morning weirdness - Abbott to stand

Sometimes a moment in the morning makes you think you've woken up in a parallel universe.

One such moment came when Diane Abbott announced that she would stand for Labour Leader. It was unexpected and James Naughty was lost for words. Me too, it looks like this race might be more fun than first thought.

Squiffy.

David Miliband says the era of New Labour is over

The nerdy half of the 0.2 centibands told us that new Labour is over. It's not a good start though as he was re-announcing his candidature. Re-heating announcements is so last decade.

Squiffy.

Alistair Darling lives in another world

The new Government has been busy telling the press that there are new spending commitments made in the last days of the old Government and blaming the old Government for the country's economic mess. Fair enough you may say.

Up pops Alistair Darling saying that it's the oldest trick in the book to blame the previous Government. Really! You surprise me. I can't remember the last Government blaming the previous Tory Government. No wait a minute, they did exactly that again and again, right until they were booted out.

The country's finances are a mess. Labour was in charge. It is Labour's fault. Get used to it, learn from you mistakes and promise not to do it again. And this time mean it. Next time you're in Government don't leave your successor an almighty mess to clear up - it would be a novelty.

Squiffy.

Some time for reflection

I've taken some time away blogging, so that the picture can settle and we can begin to get a clear view of the new politics.

Now that the new Government has started its serious work, I feel it is now time to give some thoughts and observations.

Firstly, it seems that the public are broadly supportive of the new coalition Government and wish it to succeed. I think the public just want the Government to get on with it now, announce the pain that we are going to have, let us feel it for a few years and then begin to get us out of this trough.

It appears that the vast majority of Tory and LibDem MPs are also supportive but there are rumblings on the Tory right and LibDem left. I can sympathise with the Tory right as it appears that a few too many policies were ditched to enable to coalition. I can sympathise with the LibDem left who always envisaged a relignment of the left, but the maths made it impossible.

I think we need a period to see how the new coalition performs before complaining. I'm heartened by David Cameron's reach out to Frank Field, as I think he has the right ideas about poverty and welfare. He will have to throw the right some red meat soon though to placate them and firm up his position.

I believe that David Cameron has been extremely bold in not choosing the easy option and going for the coalition. He is seeing a larger picture than the rest of us. He wants a realignment of the centre-right, for he knows that the Orange-book LibDems are closer to One-Nation Tories than Labour.

Maybe the end goal for the Tories and Labour (and one in which Nick Clegg must have foreseen) is to split the LibDems down the middle, back to their roots. The Libs, back in their Whig days, are close to the Tories. The Dems are social democrats closer to New Labour. The coalition may highlight the contradictions that are built into the LibDem party which have been papered over for too many years.

Let's look at some of the new policies. I agree with fixed term parliaments, but the 55% majority required for a dissolution is arbitrary and should be dropped. There needs to be a cross party consensus on a way forward for fixed term parliaments.

It's good to see that George Osborne is going to include all the PFI projects and off-book pension liabilities in the overall deficit. It is frankly ludicrous to omit certain items. He does run the risk that the overall deficit which could be heading towards £3Tr, could scare the bejesus out of the markets but I would expect them to know better. It looks like he's going to make a very early start to cuts, next Monday, indeed and not a moment too soon.

I don't like the increase to Capital Gains Tax and NI contributions for employees. The Tories should have stuck to their guns, and said that they wanted to increase the personal allowance to £10K (which I support) at some point in the future, but we cannot afford it now.

I think the referendum for AV is fine, but I'm glad it did not go as far as PR. I'd like to see a quick move to elect members of the House of Lords by PR though. We do need to keep some elements of party independence in the House though, via some form of appointments.

Anyway, I wish them well so far. We'll be watching closely.

Squiffy.

Going to bed with a smile on my face

It's been 13 long years, of hope, disappointment and then anger.

As a natural Tory, even I believed that some things would get better in 1997. It wasn't so bad, those first four years; the Labour party hadn't unleashed, at that point, the usual spending splurge.

Then after 2001, it did. It was necessary to some extent, to fix some of the funding issues in the NHS and Education, but then it became the only answer to every problem. As the spending went out of control, each year we were told it was spending for investment and not for current spending, I felt this would end in tears. Eventually, it did go wrong and as the economy tanked the Labour party only knew one way to get out of it. Spend more.

On other fronts the Labour Party was good for me. I was eternally grateful for social policy. I had the happiest day of my life when I had my civil partnership with the love of my life in 2008, and that was unthinkable under the Tories of old. Time has moved on, and gay issues are largely neutered - I feel like a full member of society.

But as time went on, earning a middle income wage, it felt like whenever anything went wrong the Government felt they could put its hands in my pockets whenever it felt like it. I know I need to pay my fair share, but it started to feel like an unfair share as you could turn on ITV in the morning and watch someone of a similar age who had never done a day's work, living off state benefits, spending their days watching TV, getting people pregnant and drinking their lives away. I quite frankly resent that.

The outright lying by allowing the Lisbon treaty was the worst politicking I can remember, absolutely shameful. Gordon Brown took the spin to new depths, even after saying that he wouldn't spin. The PM could spin for himself, but would have negative results. The twisting and turning over the "boom and bust" quote, and redefining the economic cycle whenever he felt like it were terrible.

So, tonight, I look towards a new Prime Minister, a new Government and a new Tory/LD Britain. I expect less spin and more efficient but quiet Government. I expect more respect from Government, I want them to treat people as adults, and I would - eventually, when we've sorted out the economic mess - like to see less taxes and more enterprise.

I believe that Labour MPs have the right hearts but don't know how to enact their policies to achieve the right results. I believe Tories also have the same hearts, but have a different but seemingly uncompassionate method of achieving the same aim. It's unfortunately unpopular, but I feel that the Tory methods are more likely to achieve the aims that both Labour and Tories wish to achieve.

Tonight I go to bed in hope again, as in 1997. But I'm a realist and this time I hope the disappointment will be much less.

Squiffy.

Will the parties sit as clique's on the green benches?

When Parliament starts next week, will the Tories and Lib Dems be mixed up on the same benches or will they sit in their party cliques....

Just a question.

Squiffy.

Prime Minister David Cameron's (+ Nick Clegg's appointments)

It is looking like the following is happening:

George Osborne as Chancellor
William Hague as Foreign Secretary
Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister
Vince Cable as Chief Secretary of the Treasury
David Laws as Education Secretary
Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary

I think I would put David Davis as the Home Secretary, Chris Huhne as Environment Secretary, Ken Clarke as Business Sec, Frank Field as Work & Pensions (as a cross-party move). I would keep Liam fox as Defence Secretary and not Lord Ashdown, because Paddy was being very sniffy this morning and was reportedly pushing for the Labour deal.

It's amazing that Lib Dems will have a minister in each department - that might cover half the Lib Dem party - surely that doesn't mean that the best person for the job gets it.

More news as we get it....

Squiffy.

David Cameron as PM

He first started with some good words about the previous regime: "Old government was open at home and compassionate abroad."

The aim is for a coalition with the Lib Democrats. He mentioned responsibility and some of the tough decisions ahead.

A good statesman like speech, highlighting how difficult it will be.

We now await the details of the coalition.

Squiffy.

David Cameron arrives at the Palace

We have a new Prime Minister, David Cameron. Well done David. I wish you the best of luck in making this country a better country.

Squiffy.

Gordon Brown resigns

Gordon Brown has resigned as Prime Minister. You always feel a little sad for the individual involved even if you completely disagree with them. He was obviously emotional and you could feel it when he said how much he loved Sarah and the sons.

We don't know when David Cameron will be called for and at the moment we have an absolute monarchy.

God save the Queen!

Squiffy.

Things are moving quickly now

It appears the Lab/LD talks are over. There is talk of bags being packed in Downing Street. If this is the case, I may have to open a bottle of wine.

Squiffy.

Moving back to a Con-LD coalition

The words coming out of the Lab-LD talks are that there are difficulties with bringing the deficit down - which is more serious than the difficulty with PR. It also looks like Ed Balls has been rude in the meeting which is why Lord Mandelson had a face of thunder.

Iain Dale is saying that Nick Clegg and Vince Cable want to do a deal with the Tories, Ming Campbell and Paddy Ashdown are stopping them. Oh dear.

Squiffy.

Get ready for the Lib Dems to do no deal

Nick Clegg needs to row back from his current position. He knows now that he is damaged goods. He may have personally wanted to do the Tory deal, but was browbeaten into opening talks with Labour. But if he is sensible, he needs to draw a line. If I was David Cameron I would put a time limit of 11am for a decision to force Nick Clegg's hand.

Nick Clegg has to say there will be no deal, but Lib Dems would abstain on a Queen's Speech and Budget. This would enable a Tory minority Government to do enough to start sorting out the financial mess and guarentee an election later in the year.

Anything else now would be very bad. The Lib Dems cannot be trusted, and any coalition needs to have some element of trust at its heart.

Squiffy.

Adam Boulton vs Alastair Campbell

Fight fight fight...



Squiffy.

David Cameron speaks to Nick Clegg; Lib Dems to meet at 10pm

Apparently DC has spoken to NC, and the Lib Dem MPs are going to meet at 10pm. I'm guessing that DC has put down an ultimatum to Nick Clegg and said that he has to make a decision tonight.

He has probably made it clear that Nick Clegg can not play Labour and the Tories against each other in some cheap bartering. Tonight has still some way to play out.

Squiffy.

The pound is crashing right now...

It's already lost a cent.

Squiffy.

Nick Clegg has made the biggest mistake of his life

By opening the negotiations to Labour before the Tory negotiations have been complete has shown immaturity. He has now set in motion a sequence of events which will have a major negative effect on the Lib Dems and lead to a large Tory majority.

Firstly, the Tories had to respond quickly. They have just done so, with an open offer of a referendum of AV, but this is time limited and the last offer. I think this is a masterstroke by George Osborne. The Lib Dems have a very quick decision to make.

If they try to form a coalition with Labour, they may not succeed. But the one thing that will happen is that they will be severely punished. Either by a split or an election catastrophe. A second unelected Prime Minister without the winner of the election campaign will sign their death knell for years. They will not win a referendum if they try - not now.

I think they will be severely punished anyway now. They have put their own interests above the country's. If the Con-LD offer is refused, the economy will tank. It may do so tomorrow anyway because the coalition will be very unstable.

Nick Clegg is playing with fire, I think he has made a huge tactical mistake. The country is now going to be punished, and we will punish him.

Squiffy.

GB is going

Gordon Brown has finally tendered his resignation as leader of the Labour party whilst facilitating negiotiations between Labour and the Lib Dems.

It's good that he goes, but if he thinks that a Lab-LD coalition is likely then he is in cloud cuckoo land. That wouldn't be the first time.

Squiffy.

The likely options - anything but Lab-LD

It's midday on the Monday after the general election and there is no effective Government in this country. The Lib Dems and Conservatives are still talking and there is a deadline of this evening in place, put by Nick Clegg.

I think the most likely option is that there will be a Con-LD coalition, with the 4 key principles still in play. The 'political reform' will include MP recall, reform of the House of Lords and changes to political funding. I think there will be a committee on electoral reform and a free vote on a PR referendum.

If this happens it will be quite difficult to get it through the Tory party, but I think they will with grumbling. I think the LDs will get it through with a few minor defections to Labour. I then think that the LD vote share in the polls will plummet with many saying they would not help prop up a Tory Government. The pact would last two years.

The second most likely options is a supply and confidence agreement with Tories operating as a minority with support for some political reforms and the budget and a small Queen's speech. The Lib Dems will grumble about this but continue until later this year when a second general election will be called. The LDs would do badly in this election.

The least likely option is that of a Lab-LD coalition. Primarily because the numbers don't add up to make a majority and would need the rag tag of other smaller parties. Any kind of rainbow coalition would be extremely unstable and would show that there is no willingness to deal with the deficit as the Government would be in hock to vested local interests. The economy would tank quickly and we would have a general election in the summer.

The other reason why this is unlikely, is that Nick Clegg cannot be so stupid to believe that the country would accept a new unelected Labour leader, and even more so that any Labour leader cannot deliver on a promise of PR. Most MPs in the Labour party prefer First-Past-The-Post and so the LD leader would need to have a lobotomy to believe any PR promises. Especially as the Labour party would be going through a moment of soul-searching.

Finally, again the LDs would have a few defections and would tank in the polls. Any solution is probably bad for the Lib Dems, but any Lib Dem voter who thought that any of the possible scenarios above should not happen is obviously living in cloud cuckoo land. These are the scenarios that a vote for the LDs infer. It also demonstrates the hazards of PR - we are having the PR demo right now...

Squiffy.

Hello on the Jubilee line

This morning was bad on the way to work. Not only is it monday, but there were two incidents of people being ill on tubes in front, another tube had a pull of the emergency cord and the train I was on had to be taken out of service due to a door fault.

Thankfully now that Boris has pulled the plug on the crappy PPP, we may get a tube system that works better.

Squiffy.

Could Brown be about to jump?

The Prime Minister has arrived back in London and is speaking individually to cabinet ministers. This sounds like he maybe about to make his intention to resign as leader of the Labour party.

It sounds like phone calls with Nick Clegg have not gone well. They may be discussing a handover to someone else as a caretaker in the hope that it may encourage the Lib Dems to make a deal. That would be my hunch.

Squiffy.

Election aftermath blog

Squiffy.

The people have spoken: we don't know

It's a shame that the public cannot decide. We have the worst of all worlds...I think we will rue today. An election in september beckons.

Election Live Blog

I'll be blogging live from 10pm. Join me here as I give my thoughts until such time as I get tired or drunk!



Squiffy.

10 predictions for the day

1. Turnout will be up at 72%
2. The Tories will win a slim majority.
3. The percentage share will be Tories 38%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 25%.
4. The seats tally will be Tories 336, Labour 216, Lib Dems 79.
5. Gordon Brown will resign at 9 a.m.
6. David Cameron will accept that he is Prime MInister in a small gathering at 7 a.m.
7. Ed Balls will keep his seat but Jon Denham will not.
8. Charles Clarke will make a scathing attack on gGordon Brown just after the exit polls have been published.
9. The polls will be shown to have understated Tory support while overstating Labour support by 2% each.
10. Frank Field will be made a minister in the new cabinet.

Squiffy.

Queuing at the polling station

Never been a queue at a polling booth before when I've gone to vote. This is going to be a big turnout.

Squiffy.

Today's the day.

After 5 years of waiting for this Labour government to come to an end, it is nearly in our grasp. Some things they did right, bank of England independence, funding the NHS and civil partnerships to name a few, but they got so miuch wrong - especially with the economy - that they need to be put out of their misery.

The next few years will be very tough. We need to get a grip very quickly and sort ou the mess, then we can look to a brighter future. There's only one person and party I trust to do that.

Today, put your cross against the Conservative candidate and let Great Britain be Great again.

Squiffy.

Cats in a bag

The tension has been building for a while, but as we head into the last week the bubble has burst.

Manish Sood the Labour PPC for Norwich north west says that the PM is the worst we have had. The full Labour smear machine turned on him with Jack Straw saying even his mother disowned him.

Other Labour figures are now positively encouraging tactical voting. They know they cannot win and so all unity is breaking down.

Friday morning is going to be fascinating.

Cats in a bag. Lets throw them into the water.

Squiffy.

The Debate (Part 3)

Let's hope this works. A real live blog.




Squiffy.

David Cameron has it all to do tonight

As I've said before each debate DC has it all to do. Tonight is his last chance. I know he can blow the others out of the water, but he has pulled his punches and I end up feeling that he has lost his chance to make a game changer.

He needs to be passionate, pin the economic disaster on Gordon Brown and say that it would be worse under the Lib Dems because we'd be in the Euro now. He needs to make the case for strong Government and end on optimism and power to the people.

If he can do these he might be able to make the game changer we need.

Also he needs to rebut the line 'taking money out of the economy' otherwise I might explode!

Squiffy.

Just in case you missed it...

Squiffy.

What should Cameron's opening statement be?

On Thursday David Cameron faces making the public appearance of a lifetime. Here's the opening speech i hope he makes.


"We are at a crucial moment in this island's story. You have a big choice to make. Labour got us into this mess, and they only have one solution to every problem, more money. This time there's none left. The Liberal Democrats want to give away money based on double counting and dodgy savings. They would have taken us into the Euro. With them we could be facing a Greek style crisis right now. We could get the worst of all, a hung parliament with delay, political deals behind closed doors, no confidence and a future Greek crisis.

Alternatively, you could choose the Conservatives. Where others will need to raise your tax, we will strain every sinew to leave your money in your hands. It is in our DNA. Anyone who tells you that we will take money out of the economy, believe it is their right to dip into your pockets whenever they want. We trust you to spend your money in the way you want, trusting you to support our private enterprise.

We don't want a job's tax to finish off this spluttering recovery. We want to let employers keep their money so that they can employ more people. We want to let them employ their first 10 people without paying National Insurance. We want to set entrepeneurs free, untethered by the dead hand of Government.

Together we can make Britain grow again. Our trust in the great people of this country to bring about the big society where we all support a person, a family or dare we say, the economy, will help us to fix this fantastic country. Through hope and working together we can bring about the change that you all deserve. "




Squiffy.

The final nail in the coffin?

Gordon Brown has made the inevitable gaff. Put this awkward man in front of a normal member of the public and he will come across as a man with a sore head. The clip shows that he is as false as can be, and this to a Labour voter.

Don't know whether this will have an effect on the polls but it cannot help!

Squiffy.

If I hear "I'm not the Kingmaker, the public are" again...

...I might be sick.

Nick Clegg know's this is a semi-truth. Sure the public can create a scenario where no one has a majority, but at that point their involvement ends. Politicians take over in a series of electoral trysts, dosey do-ing with each other until they find the partner they want in a sort of party political speed dating.

At the end of the process the engagement is announced, but the public have no choice of popping up at the moment of 'does anyone here know of any just impediment...' to say hang on a minute. The wedding takes place, with everyone knowing the marriage won't last. In the end the inevitable divorce happens and finally the people get their say.

If we get PR, this will be a permanent feature. I can't bear to think about it. Pass the bucket.

Squiffy.

What a waste of paper!

I've just seen the latest Lib Dem party political broadcast and I was thinking what a waste of paper. Not very good for an 'environmental' party.

It was when the camera panned you could see that the CGI couldn't quite keep up. Throughout I was thinking about the paper, can't remember what Nick Clegg said.

squiffy.

Labour only has itself to blame

Labour is now firmly in second place in the polls. If things stand they will lose a large number of seats to the Tories and Lib Dems.

With 10 days to go, there are a few things they could try such as announcing a new uncosted but popular policy. But i think the public would see through it and continue on their chosen path. The fact is that Gordon Brown cannot change and everyone knows it. Whereas David Cameron and Nick Clegg are young and fleet footed, the clunking fist is merely clunking.

Labour had 4 opportunities to get rid of him but didn't do it. It's too late for them now, and they deserve it.

I don't think the Tories can drop below 30 percent as even at the nadir of 1997 they managed this, so it must be the core vote. Where Labour can drop to we do not know, my feeling is 25 percent. Only 10 days to go to find out.

This is truly a memorable and bewildering time.

Squiffy.

The Debate (Part 2)

Here's what I think during the second debate.

- Everyone wearing the correct tie. Cameron using purple this week, next week it must be Clegg's.

Europe:
- Gordon Brown just lied about the social chapter. We had paid holidays before.
- Nick Clegg starts using a example. We had enough of those last week.
- Cameron looking a bit more assured.
- Cameron is being more emotive.
- Gordon Brown was foolish to attack Clegg - he came across as petulant.

Afghanistan:
- Cameron makes best case on Afghanistan.
- Brown makes impassioned defence of our forces.
- Clegg makes a good response about the vehicles being used and breaking down.
- Trident makes its appearance. Clegg is good here - even if I disagree with him.
- Cameron agree's with Gordon!

Environment:
- Gordon Brown goes solar.
- Some jokes from Cameron.
- Nick Clegg is human when he says he can't do enough. He's brave bringing up his air travel tax. People don't know about that.
- Cameron, attack Clegg on his air tax!
- Clegg "hold your horses" will be the soundbite.
- Gordon Brown seems strong here on the energy balance.
- Clegg is winning again, I think

Pope (what!):
- Clegg not as good here.
- Brown is putting on a better performance.
- They all agree.
- Brown is very string here.

Expenses and faith in politics:
- Same as last time in the statements about this.
- Cameron, now is your chance.
- Cameron made his point about the big society at lasy. Now hammer it home.
- Inheritance again....
- Gordon Brown is a cracked record.

Pensions:
- All want to bring back the earnings link.
- Some passion from Cameron. Go for it.
- Cameron is getting very passionate. Love it. It's now coming alive - he tells GB that the leaflets are lies and he should be ashamed.
- Clegg is making me want to hurl, being so consensual on elderly care.
- Cameron needs to mention the robbing of our pensions by GB.
- Now on elderly care - covered it last week.

Coalition Government:
- Cameron makes a good case for cutting the NI increase.
- Gordon Brown can't help himself referring to the Lib Dems as Liberals.
- 'Taking money out of the economy' - it's driving me f***ing mad. Someone tell the idiot that it is not taking money out of the economy.
- Cameron missed the opportunity again.

Immigration yet again:
- Did this last week.
- This is depressing me now.
- Good point by Clegg about 900,000 people living in the shadows.

Closing statements:
- Gordon Brown. Broken record time.
- David Cameron does the Big Society again.
- Nick Clegg mentions difference but doesn't provide any. Good ending.

Too many issues were covered last week. Nearly gave up.

Squiffy.

Debate 2

Today we have the second Prime Ministerial debate. After Nick Clegg’s winning of last week’s debate, we should look at the challenges facing each.

 

Gordon Brown: He has to perform better. At the moment it looks like his campaign is dead in the water and the polls should a gradual decrease. I don’t know what he can do to be better, as it’s just not him.

 

Nick Clegg: He won the debate by being likeable, putting the rivals into the same bucket and looking like the outsider. I’m not sure he will be able to do the same tonight, it looks like the second difficult album. It depends on how he handles the issues tonight where LibDems can be seen as weak. David Cameron is going to be highlighting LibDem policies, and Nick Clegg needs to be robust. Although he did extremely well, it’s hard to remember anything specific from last week.

 

David Cameron: As has happened twice before, David Cameron needs to perform at his very best and do a relaxed but formidable performance. He needs to be passionate, bang on about the Big Society, and show that the Tories are not amateurs on the international scene. It’s a tough ask – he can do it, but I wish he had last week!

 

Squiffy.

 

Vince gets Cabled

What i've been saying all along.

Squiffy.

Could the Lib-Dems nudge Labour into third?

We've all heard the opinions of the first leadership debate, and I thought that Nick Clegg did win the debate, he appeared normal and can berate both other parties equally. Cameron performed well-ish but he is so much better when he talks with passion. Brown did better than expected, but was the really the same old Gordon and it came across.

The first opinion polls also showed the same results but the most fascinating is the voting intention poll showing the Tories in the lead, Lib Dems in second and Labour in third. Of course polls taken immediately after an event tend to have unusual swings and so we cannot read too much into it, but it is clear that the Lib Dems will get a bounce.

I think in the next two debates Cameron will change his strategy and attack both candidates for their policies. In the third I think he will do the hope thing again. Whether Gordon Brown can change his approach is another matter, he may be less agreeable with Nick Clegg as he may be battling it out with the Lib Dems for second.

If the Lib Dems do come second in the election it is still very unlikely they will have more seats than either of the other parties, but the likelihood of a hung parliament is greater. If Labour come third but have most seats it would be impossible for the Lib Dems to back them up. All their arguments of the "party with the most legitimacy should form the Government" would be laughable if they even tired it. So it would have to be a Con/LibDem deal if not a coalition. This could kill the LibDem resurgence or kill Labour. It would be fascinating to watch.

It may now be seen as a mistake for Gordon Brown to cosy up to the Lib Dems, as it could go badly wrong. I think there will be some more distance in the next few days and also more scrutiny of the LibDem policies.

I'm now going to read the manifestos...what am I letting myself in for!

Squiffy.

The Debate (Part 1)

This is my blog during the debate...

- Everyone is wearing the right colour tie

- All good opening statements

- Immigration - it sounds like Gordon Brown stops people coming in if he speaks to them. Good answers by Cameron and Clegg. Brown says it is falling, that's due to the fact our economy is in the mud. Clegg makes flippant remark on a cap. Brown is not performing well on this point.

- Law & Order - Good point by Cledd on ID cards. Do people believe Gordon Brown when he says that 80% of police time needs to be on the street? Doesn't mention burglary. Cameron recognizes the drug problem related to burglary, very good point. Clegg performing well, but what is the policy? Brown is a one trick pony on funding. Has to mention Ashcroft too.

- Expenses - Brown can't talk about irresponsibility. Hello, £167Bn deficit. We know AV voting has nothing to do with expenses. Clegg doing a plague on both your houses again. Brown is trying to love-bomb Clegg. Brown has been found out saying that Clegg supports him. He doesn't. David Cameron is mediating!

- Education - Brown has no new answers on Education. Same old. Cameron is not answering the questioner's point. Oh, he is now. Clegg is answering it properly. Clegg is saying the same as Cameron. Brown's "every school has to be a good school", oh please. We know that, and it is not going to happen. Cameron mentions discipline, hurrah! Massage suite in the Department of Children, Schools etc, oh that's how Ed Balls gets bugging eyes. One trick pony Brown again - more money. He talks discipline but doesn't mean it.

- No adverts, amazing. If only they'd done it for Formula 1.

- Budget deficit - Cameron doing well tonight. Brown sometimes looks like he is about to pout. Brown mentions taking money out of the economy - it is not out of the economy it's in people's pockets. Stop lying. Please Cameron tackle him on it. Clegg doesn't sound so sure on the Economy. Brown only believes the Government can bring us out of the recession. Glad to see Cameron attacking the LibDems. Cameron please talk about this line of taking money out the economy! Please! Now's your chance. Missed it.

- Armed Forces - Brown is doing the father of the nation voice again. Nobody believes him on equipment. Cameron makes a good point on the TA. Good point by Clegg. Cameron says we should keep Trident. A good point by Brown, it can be a bargaining chip. Cameron attacks Brown on helicopters - is he going to lie now?

- Health - Cameron is very effusive about the care his son received. Clegg points out all the closures. Brown bangs on about personal guarantees. Brown can't shake his head when NI increase will take money out of NHS. He's doing it again. Cameron seems knowledgeable about cancer drugs. Inheritance tax! Not the biggest issue in the Tory manifesto.

- Elderly care - Cameron makes a good point. Clegg wants unity. Brown is spending money as we speak. Cameron makes good speech about carers. Cameron tries to bring the manifesto into play. Clegg ends on the consensus note.

- Closing statements - Clegg does his name check. Brown tries to be populist. Brown tries to scare, Cameron tries hope. Cameron has the best finish.

Squiffy.

Countdown to the leaders debate

It’s so exciting. I can’t wait for tonight’s debate, it’s (hopefully) going to be fascinating to watch the three men go up against each other on weighty issues (rather than PMQs in which the leaders try not to answer questions!).

 

Gordon Brown has nothing to lose, he needs to make sure that he keeps his answers brief, doesn’t bamboozle with statistics and tries to come across as normal.

 

David Cameron has the biggest challenge in that he has most to lose. He needs to talk to people on their level and show passion. I was particularly impressed when he shown real passion when asked a question by a journalist at the manifesto launch. His fervor about how the Labour party only understands how to spend money really hit home. He must not lose his rag though.

 

Nick Clegg is just happy to be included. It gives him a level playing field for the first time in a TV debate for a Lib Dem leader. He should do well as long as he does not hector which he can do from time to time. I also hope he tries to stay equi-distant between Labour and Tories. Recently his spokesmen seem to be cosying up to Labour, and while that maybe where their ideology lies it will give them huge problems if there is a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party.

 

They must all try to answer the questions, otherwise they will be found out.

 

I will blog during the debate, and during the weekend will give my thoughts on the Manifestos (they take time to read!).

 

Squiffy.

 

Ed 'blinkety blink' Balls

If, like me, you really dislike Ed Balls and his continuous stream of misrepresentations and eye popping mis-truths then you can donate to his opponent, Antony Calvert here.

I made my donation this morning, after hearing Ed Balls saying that the NI tax non-rise will greatly deprive his department of money and thus hit children's schools really hard. The fact is that Ed Balls has already announced some cuts, and there will be more in 2011/12 by Labour's own plans. He wants us to believe that his cuts will not affect teachers and children, but Tory cuts will. He deceives as a rule of course, there are so many occasions through the last few years when he has been found to be dodgy. Let's think SATs and the report over the tragic Baby P case. Let's castrate Labour, as they need their own Portillo moment.

Squiffy.

Why did David Cameron allow Gordon Brown to get away with the £6 Bn out of the economy line?

I was nearly screaming at the radio today during PMQs. Twice (or was it three times?) the PM said that the National Insurance non-rise by the Tories would take £6 Bn out of the economy. I wanted DC to counter that but he did not. It typifies this Government’s approach, they believe that if the Government can spend the money, it is investment in the economy, but if the people and their employers are allowed to spend their own money then it is money taken out of the economy. Just ridiculous.

 

They think that they can help themselves to our money when they want to, and they have a much better way to spend it. It makes me angry.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

And we're off

All that waiting for Gordon Brown to announce the election date is over. He’s called it for May 6^th, the most likely date but he’s in a weaker position than he was in early March.

 

I’ve been looking forward to this election for such a long time. Firstly, because I want a new Government desperately. Secondly, because I love election campaigns. I love all the interviews with the leaders, the set piece morning conferences and this time we’ll have the leader debates. I will love to see Paxo have a go at Gordon Brown – he’s not put himself forward for a Paxo grilling since becoming Chancellor. I’d also like to see him face the public – something which he is reluctant to do.

 

I also feel a sense of disappointment, that the present exciting time will be over soon.

 

Squiffy.

 

Fast and loose with the figures! That's our Gordy

For the second time in a few weeks Gordon Brown (or at least his number 10 office) has had to apologise for the misuse of statistics. First there was his defence spending at the Chilcott inquiry, and now it is the migration figures (best not to get it wrong when talking about such an emotive issue).

 

I’m not surprised, over the years, especially as Chancellor, Mr. Brown frequently double counted, changed the baseline and forgot about ‘real-terms’. Many of us got used to it, which is why the opposition always has to look at the small print.  He even altered the definition of the economic cycle to get around his own golden rule. The annoying thing about it is that the PM so frequently uses statistics to make his argument, bandying around figures at the drop of a hat. The trick is not to be taken in.

 

Squiffy.

 

Mr Eugenides has magical Vince spot on

This post from Mr Eugenides sums up my thoughts on Vince Cable. He's a nice gent, but the beatification of the man with muddled thinking is annoying me somewhat.

He doesn't face any difficult questions, like why did he say one month that the Government should not tell the BoE what to do about interest rates, then the following month calling on the Chancellor to tell the BoE to cut rates immediately?

Because he has no chance of becoming Chancellor he gets a free ride, and with a bit of comedy he's everyone favourite. I want someone with joined up thinking thank you.

Squiffy.

Reversing the 1p on NICs

George Osborne has announced that the Tories will reverse the increase in National Insurance Contributions for 7 out of 10 people including Employers contributions. That is to be welcomed as increasing taxes on people and employers will be a bigger drag on recovery than any removal of the existing ‘stimulus’.

 

It’s also quite right that if there are to be efficiency savings of £11Bn can be found for 2011/12 then they should be brought forward to 2010/11. In fact how can any Government seriously think that it is good to continue with something which they know is not performing at its most efficient! I do think though, that it would have been a good idea if Mr. Osborne had announced a mix of savings and spending cuts to finance the tax cut. It would have been a big signal that the Tories are going to ‘get real’.

 

There is too much emphasis on efficiency savings and waste, and no doubt a lot can be found, but we are getting used to the promises but are still awaiting the delivery. The existing review announced a few years ago identified £35Bn of waste and efficiency savings, with only one year to go only £11Bn has been found.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

Tax cuts for a while, tax rises for ever

In the budget on Wednesday, Alistair Darling announced a two year cut in stamp duty for properties up to £250,000. He announced that it would be funded by an increase to 5% of stamp duty on properties over £1M.

 

Remember that tax raises, by this Government are by stealth. So you can bet your bottom dollar that if Labour get re-elected the tax cut will stop as planned in two years, but the tax rise will continue.

 

Also, it wasn’t mentioned on Wednesday but the tax allowances have been frozen for the year. That is an effective tax rise for  every taxpayer in the country. Expect more of the same, Liam Byrne’s statement that there are no reasons for further tax rises looks pretty unbelievable now. It’s noted that he hasn’t re-made that assertion since that day on the Daily Politics!

 

Squiffy.

 

Budget 2010: The verdict

Odourless Crap.

 

There was no new information on the budget deficits. All the announcements of ‘savings’ and ‘efficiencies’ were made in December, so nothing new. Some tax increases on the cost of living. A tiny giveaway. That’s about all.

 

He did talk about ‘saved money’ when referring to the deficit being lower – which as I said early is not ‘saved money’, it is ‘not borrowed money’. Creating a quango to make sure that banks lend money to firms which they deem to be too risky is weird. How did we get into the credit crunch? by dodgy lending!

 

Apparently VAT will be added to stamps. Stamp duty taken away somewhere to be added elsewhere!

 

Closing offshore tax havens in Belize was just pettiness. Shows what kind of Government we have, regulations to target one person. Vindictiveness.

 

If the polls stay steady his ‘say nothing’ budget will have worked. I hope not, but then I can’t understand how 30% of the people say they would vote for this corrupt, spiteful, disorganized, incompetent and useless Government.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

 

 

Budget 2010: An opportunity to do the right thing

Today’s Budget is the last opportunity for this Government to do the right thing. After 10 years of throwing money at every problem, there is none left. The deficit may come in at under £178Bn and that should be welcomed, but that does not allow for new spending – it is still debt. Any money below the £178Bn figure is not excess, it is money that has not been borrowed, it is money that hasn’t been created from thin air.

 

If Alistair Darling says ‘investment’ today, he means spending that he can’t afford. If he announces any give aways today there should be a march on parliament saying ‘give us our money back’.

 

He should announce ways to pay back the huge debt that his Government has built up. If there is any increase in taxes, even by stealth, it tells us that Liam Byrne was wrong two weeks ago. If the Government can u-turn in two weeks then we know what will happen after an election. New taxes.

 

If he doesn’t pay back much debt, or fails to outline a plan, the currency will plummet when he sits down. It will be the most reliable verdict. After each budget or autumn statement, Labour’s poll ratings have plummeted. If it happens this time it may be game over. It’s a balancing act between the people’s verdict and the market’s.

 

I suspect there will be a few give-aways and no plan to pay back the debt. I expect to feel very disappointed, and poorer, today.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The LibDems contradiction

If you take a look at the LibDems policy document you will see two contradictory policy statements, showing confused thinking:

 

Fairer local taxes: Scrap the unfair Council Tax – The Council Tax is an unfair tax which bears no relationship to the ability to pay. Liberal Democrats believe that it should be scrapped and replaced with a fair local tax, based on people’s ability to pay. We will pilot a fair local income tax in areas that choose to try it out.

 

Cutting taxes for people on low and middle incomes - … The change will be paid for by introducing a mansion tax…

 

It’s interesting that they hide the mansion tax away as a small sentence rather than give it the headline section that it demanded when Vince announced it at conference.

 

The Lib Dems state that they want fairness, and that they want to get rid of the council tax because it ‘bears no relationship to the ability to pay’ whereas they are happy for a property tax even if it ‘bears no relationship to the ability to pay’ just as long as the property is a big one.

 

Muddled me thinks.

 

Squiffy.

 

The funding of Unite

Unite has paid the Labour party £11M in the last few years. Where does Unite get its money from? From its members you may say. True, but did you know that it got £4.5M from the taxpayer, in the form of a Union Modernisation Fund?

 

It’s quite hard to see what modernisation has occurred in the current dispute. Similarly to other beneficiaries such as the RMT, the unions still act like dinosaurs. Why does a union need money from the taxpayer when they have their own member’s contributions?

 

The fund was established by this Labour Government, and isn’t it scandalous that it can give the taxpayers money away only to receive it back into its own party coffers. It’s a form of money laundering that should be stamped out!

 

Squiffy.

 

Bahrain: The Verdict

After the hype of leading up to the first Grand Prix of the year, with 8 possible World Champions and 4 teams in with a shout of winning, it’s probably not surprising that the talk after the race was of a procession and that something needs to be done.

 

I’d say hold your horses. People have short memories, there were plenty of races in the days of refueling when there was no overtaking – in fact there was more overtaking in this race than many others!

 

The disappointment for me was that the tyres were not as marginal as they could have been. At present, Bridgestone bring two compounds of tyres, one hard, one softer to each race. They deem the hard tyre (or the ‘prime’ tyre) to be the one more likely to be useful for the race and the soft (or ‘option’) tyre to be more apt for qualifying – even though they have to use both for the race. They pick which is the hard tyre compound based on previous seasons.

 

My suggestion is that they go one or maybe two compounds softer for both, making them have more grip to aid overtaking but more marginal and so more drop off in performance as they get worn. Forget talk of mandatory two pitstops, it would happen naturally!

 

Squiffy.

 

The Tories go open source

In a welcome announcement yesterday the Tories said that they would support open source and go down a more agile route to Government IT if they get elected.

 

For those that don’t understand anything I’ve just said this means an end to the huge corporates such as IBM, Accenture and EDS locked into nearly every Government IT contract. They usually overspend, come in late and provide a large bloated system which barely does what was intended. You’d think that after each project the Government would say, hey why don’t we try someone else, but in effect they go around in a cycle trying each one in turn until they start at the beginning again. Nothing changes.

 

Until now. The idea of going open source is to stop the huge procurement of expensive systems. They would buy something off the shelf and then use many thousands of developers around the world, who develop for free/fun to customize it to the required use. Open source is the way to go. Anyone who religiously buys Microsoft Office, should instead think about downloading OpenOffice. It’s an equivalent which does just about as much – why does it need to be MS Word if all you’re going to write is a letter?

 

Think of the thousands of pounds which could be saved by not being locked into Microsoft.

 

The idea is to get small systems and components (which are easily testable) to work together, rather than the monolithic huge databases such as the new NHS IT system which is years late and cost many extra billions.

 

The other announcement was that they would employ a small in-house development team, this team would take on small projects but would also be used to advise on new systems and make recommendations. Surely it’s a good idea to get experts to make these kinds of decisions rather than ministers who can’t tell their ASSP from their EPROM (*).

 

While they’re at it, they should make sure every large company they work with uses Agile methodology and that a Government IT project manager sits in the Agile Scrums and planning sessions.(*)

 

At last, maybe a Government with some nous. Hopefully they’ll get rid of IR35 tax legislation – which costs more to regulate than it brings in. But you can’t have everything.

 

Squiffy.

 

*Excuse the geekery

 

F1 2010 is here

The first race of the 2010 F1 season will be this weekend. I thought I'd give you my thoughts on the states of the teams.

Mercedes

The championship team has a struggle on its hands to retain the title this year. Ross Brawn admitted that the work on this year's car was delayed by last year's battle.

The biggest change is that Michael Schumacher is on board, and we all know that he is an immense talent and I don't expect his 3 years away to have dented his skills. Nico Rosberg must have expected to face Jenson Button as a team mate and might have rated his chances, but the team will quickly focus on Schumacher unless Nico can pull out some stellar performances. Judging by his speed, it may be possible but he has to cut down on the errors which marred 2009.

The ingredients should be there for the car to be one of the best, but testing has shown that it may be a fraction off the pace of McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. A diffuser update is scheduled to appear for the first race, maybe it will return the team to the top.

Red Bull

The RB5 was the best car of 2009. Unfortunately, they didn't have the double diffuser at the start of the year and it hurt their title chances. Not so this year, but Adrian Newey's cars have always pushed the envelope to the limit and risk reliability in the pursuit of speed. Testing shows the same trend, an ultra fast car with some reliability concerns. There may also be issues regarding tyre degradation.

The RB5 also set the trend for this year's cars, which have copied the best features from last year (apart from pull-rod suspension). Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber will battle it out again this year and it's hard to see Vettel not making it to champion in the next few years. It could very well be this year if he eliminates the mistakes and the car holds together. I would expect Mark Webber to win a few more wins, but the amazing qualifying performances have been beaten by Vettel and unless he can reverse this trend he will not make it to champion.

McLaren

Last year started appallingly for McLaren, they were three seconds behind the competition and that is not a position the team is used to. In an amazing turnaround, they won a race by the middle of the year and go into this year with one of the fastest cars. In testing both Lewis Hamilton and new team mate Jenson Button have told how the car is very fast and reliable.

After Hamilton's bad start to last year, he is looking very fast and should be a contender this year. He faces the new World Champion Jenson Button and the rivalry should be gentlemanly but intense. Most expect Hamilton to be faster, and I agree, but maybe Button's smooth driving style will reap dividends when carrying a full fuel load by saving the life of his tyres. It will be fascinating.

Ferrari

The Ferrari has been looking like one of the fastest cars this year in testing. I was skeptical, that ending development of last year’s car so soon would be a good idea, especially as there were so many development opportunities to exploit in the new regulations and so little testing. It looks like they may have produced a corker and if Fernando Alonso is to be believed they have not been showing their true pace, which must be truly astounding!

Now that Kimi Raikkonen has decided to join the gravel trippers, Massa has to face his third World Champion in Fernando Alonso. I don’t suppose that it will faze him, and neither will the injury he faced at last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix. It will be interesting to see how the two men square up, Alonso with a competitive car again will want to add to his tally and Massa has to show that he can beat Alonso in the same way that he did Raikkonen. It will also be fascinating to watch the Alonso vs Hamilton vs Schumacher battle.

Renault

The Renault team are going through some big changes. Both drivers, the management and ownership have changed. The livery is back to being the yellow and black of the early 80's and they may even be adorned with Lada motifs! Last years car was ugly, and slow. Testing times have not shown a major improvement and so this maybe a 'building' year.

On the driver front, Robert Kubica has moved from BMW and looks very comfortable in his new surroundings. Unfortunately it looks like he jumped at the wrong moment because the BMW Sauber is looking good. He will be fast and consistent but it may be very difficult for him to find himself on the podium this season. His team mate, Vitaly Petrov is the first Russian in F1 and has a big challenge on his hands. He has a very fast team mate and needs to show that Rookies can make a difference after the poor showing from Piquet Jr and Grosjean.

BMW Sauber

Although the team is still called BMW, this is largely back to being a privateer run team by Peter Sauber. He runs a tight ship and although the new car does look a bit ugly testing times have shown that this car maybe the dark horse of the season. It is especially kind to its tyres and this may show dividends in the latter laps as they can pick off cars in trouble.

Pedro de la Rosa is back racing full time after the mini season he had in 2006. He is a good steady hand and will bring lots of experience from McLaren. No wins expected but he may make it to the podium on occasion. His team mate is Kamui Kobayashi who shone in the last two races of 2009. It's been a long time coming for a Japanese driver to really stand out, but maybe Kamui can be the real deal. If he continues where he left off I wouldn't be surprised if he got the odd podium.

Williams

I have a real soft spot for Williams, ever since Nigel Mansell drove for the team. It is a team of real racers, and their return to the top flight is long overdue. Last year's car showed consistency which had been lacking in the previous three seasons, but was still a disappointment when the points tally was counted. This year let's hope for better. They are back to using the Cosworth engine which should be fast but hopefully more reliable since they last used them.

Rubens Barrichello is in the last few years of his career but showed last year that he can still make wins when in the right car. If he can show consistent pace then he may put the Williams as best of the rest, after the top four. His team mate is Nico Hulkenberg, who's pace is looking very good. So far I think that Nico will show himself to be the best rookie.

Force India

This team visibly grew last year. With support from McLaren and the Mercedes engine, the late season update package added an extra second to the pace. In Spa they came very close to winning! If the same dynamics are in place then this team could show some surprises.

Unfortunately, last year's best showing was in the hands of Giancarlo Fisichello and after he ran off to Ferrari to never be seen again, the team is reliant on Adrian Sutil and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Both have been able to show speed on occasion but are too inconsistent to trouble the front runners on a regular basis.

Toro Rosso

A big change for this year in that they have to build their own car. It's no surprise that the car is a development of last year's Red Bull. I expect the team to snatch the odd point, but I don't expect them to trouble the middle field too often as this plucky team is now into a better financed Minardi type position.

The drivers are still Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari, but apart from the odd show of speed, neither has stood out.

Virgin F1

The first of the new teams with a car based entirely on computation fluid dynamics, will find it a struggle. Both this team and the new Lotus seem to be around 6 seconds off the pace, but I don't think we're in a position where CFD can entirely replace the wind tunnel. I expect the Lotus to attach itself to the back of the midfield leaving Virgin in its wake.

Timo Glock is a good driver who shone at times last year, and I expect him to lead this team to midfield-dom. If he is very lucky, he may even snatch a point in an incident fuelled race. So far it is unclear to see what speed Lucas Di Grassi has due to the lack of true pace shown by the cars.

Lotus Racing

It's welcome to see the Lotus name back in racing, albeit in this different guise. The car is slow right now, but with the experienced Mike Gascoyne as the technical director I expect this team to be the best of the newbies.

The team has a very experienced line-up with Jarno Trulli and Heikki Kovalainen, both with something to prove. Jarno needs to show how he can make a difference to a new team, helping to develop it whereas Heikki needs to show that two years as Hamilton's team mate has not destroyed his basic speed.

Hispania F1

This team is the big unknown, until recently named as Campos it is now named as Hispania or for short HRT F1. Whoever thought that was a good idea? The car has not been shown yet so we have nothing to go on.

The drivers are Bruno Senna, trying to show that he has the skill of his uncle and Karun Chandhok who I know very little about apart from being India's second F1 driver.


That's my preview. I think it will be Alonso or Hamilton as driver's champion with Ferrari as constructors, but we only have a few hours to find out whether the winter testing times were anywhere near accurate. I can't wait.

F1 is go.

Squiffy.

Budget on 24th March, Election on 6th May (prob), not much time for debate

Is it just my cynicism that makes me think that the late date for the budget is designed to limit the debate about the measures announced?

 

It will need to be voted on very quickly to enact laws for the next financial year and to allow it to be passed for a May 6^th election to be called. Either they don’t want it to be debated in depth (of course) or Alistair and Gordon couldn’t agree (of course too)! Probably both.

 

Squiffy.

 

A counterfictional - What if Gordon Brown had called the election last weekend?

I thought I'd write a story in the form of a counterfactual. In fact, since the story is written as a view from 2022, it's a counterfictional!

The 2010 general election was one of the more exciting elections of the early 21st century. It brought in the three term Cameron Government, the realignment of the left and the splintering of the Labour movement. The election was a close affair, with polls showing a small lead for the Conservatives right until the last week of the election, when Secretary-gate derailed the Labour campaign.

When the election was called at the end of March, the Tories had a 3% lead in the polls. This steadily grew as the impact of the National Insurance tax rises were felt, and the electorate realized that the newly announced increases in VAT (to 19%) and a further penny on NI would further hit them in the pocket. A hammer blow to the Labour campaign came on the 23rd April when the recovering economy slipped back into recession posting a decline of 0.2% GDP.

The big turning point in the race came the following Sunday, when footage was released showing a recording on a mobile phone of the Prime Minister shouting and throwing newspapers in the face of a secretary after she had shown him reports of the second leaders debate. He had done badly when talking about the economy in the debate, when he said that after the current recession there would be no more returns to boom and bust.

Even the Daily Mirror turned against the PM when images of the crying woman were shown on TV pictures over and over again. Labour slumped to 26% and the Tories were returned to power with an 80 seat majority.

David Cameron went on to cut public spending, bringing back strong growth for the 2014 election which he went on to win strongly. The reforms to the public services allowed them to increase productivity against the economic backdrop, the schools reforms led to many new community schools being created by motivated parents moving Britain up the international league tables. The major disappointment has been the failure to tackle 'Broken Britain' as Britain still has too many problems in society.

Meanwhile the Labour party fell apart. After the election Gordon Brown resigned immediately. Harriet Harman, the deputy leader, took over in a caretaker capacity and built enough support to mount a leadership campaign against Ed Balls and David Milliband. In the end she won, after Ed Balls was knocked out and his support transferred to Harman. With that support she beat Milliband by 61% to 39%, and started to put forward a left leaning shadow cabinet.

Harriet Harman appointed Ed Balls as the shadow Chancellor and Yvette Cooper as shadow Foreign Secretary. The husband and wife team making history in the process as they got two of the three top jobs, albeit in a shadow capacity. Things started well, but soon soured when David Milliband resigned as shadow Home Secretary after being under pressure to dismiss half the male police chief super-intendants to promote female counterparts.

Milliband's resignation citing 'Political correctness gone mad' started the downfall of Labour as a ruling power. After the proposed 60% tax rate on earnings above £200,000 was accepted by Harriet Harman, quickly followed by an 80% tax for bankers alone judged by the 'court of opinion', 97 MPs on the right of the party defected to the Liberal Democrats, making them the new official opposition. At subsequent elections, Labour support haemorrhaged further to the low levels of 24 MPs we see today.

It could all be so different. What would have happened if Gordon Brown had called an election on the weekend of the 27th February?

The Tories had been losing ground to Labour since the beginning of the year and the lead had contracted to 6%. Then a poll on the eve of the Tory Spring Conference gave them only a lead of 2%. Gordon Brown talked to his advisers during a trip to his Welsh conference that weekend and decided that he should grasp the nettle. With the lead so narrow he could hope to turn the election result into a hung parliament at the very least.

David Cameron made a good speech at the Tory conference, but this was trumped by the evening when Gordon Brown announced on television that he would be going to the Palace the next day to ask for a dissolution of Parliament. The headlines the next day told the public that the game was on.

After one day of finishing the business of Parliament, the 'duck-island parliament' was consigned to history and the nation rejoiced. Or they would do, if they hadn't to face one of the most bruising election campaigns in history.

Gordon Brown and David Cameron immediately set off on trips to the marginal constituencies, whilst their campaign teams started to get the election literature printed. There had been some questions in the press around who was leading the Tory election campaign effort, with disagreements being cited between Steve Hilton, Andy Coulson and George Osborne. The snap election gave them no time to fully sort out the details and this would come to hurt them later in the campaign.

On the Friday, the day when Gordon Brown should have been facing the Iraq inquiry, which was now suspended, Labour launched their manifesto. Their message was upbeat about Cancer care, halving the deficit and care for the elderly. The Tories were still trying to nail down how to provide their married couples tax incentive and so their mainfesto was delayed.

The first leaders debate came and went the following Thursday with no-one coming out on top. David Cameron did himself no favours when he looked evasive over the couples tax allowance and Gordon Brown had some difficulty explaining why he had called the election now - was it due to the polls? He had mislead the public once before by saying that calling off an election was on no account of the polls.

The polls were still showing a slight Tory lead but the Lib-dems had eaten a couple of points of both main parties. The Tory manifesto was published the following Monday showing an agreed plan for shared allowances for families with children under the age of 5. Some of the right wing press and the influential ConservativeHome website lambasted the tame policy calling it a non-policy.

There were further problems for the Tories when it became clear that confusion in the campaign team was causing scheduling difficulties. One school in Norwich suspended lessons for the morning waiting for the Tory leader to arrive whilst he was shaking hands at a hospital in Ipswitch. The headteacher went onto TV to accuse the Tory leader of not being interested in her school children's education.

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown continued his tour of the marginals. A viral poster campaign showing the Tory leader in riding breeches chasing down a fox caused a political storm but highlighted the Tory leader's position on fox hunting and his upper class background.

Going into the third week of the campaign Labour had pulled ahead slightly in the polls. Mr Brown faced a difficult situation when he was berated by an angry pensioner in Ealing. He made policy on the hoof and announced that there would be a 50% reduction in council tax for over 70's in the next budget. It had worked before in 2005, and he was determined to put the Tories on the back foot. No-one knew whether he had meant it for a year, like in 2005, or longer, but the Tory poster attacking the cynicism backfired when he announced in the final debate that it was policy for the entire length of the next parliament. Financing the policy became a question that the Tories constantly asked, but the Prime Minister refused to state where the money would come from.

The new policy added an extra point to Labour's slim lead in the days following his announcement, but David Cameron forcefully put the message across that he could not go on making spending pledges while promising to half the deficit in the final leaders debate. This brought the parties level on 37% going into election day.

After a fraught day with many recounts, the polls were shown to overstate Labour support but the result was that the Tories were short of a majority by 10 seats. With the Lib Dems demanding electoral reform to provide support, the Conservatives went it alone as a minority administration.

Initially, the Tories seemed to be reasonably popular and the new PM had good approval ratings. David Cameron's Queen's speech showed that he would try to push through equal sizes of consistuency seats and a reduction of MPs to 500. Although this was designed to level the playing field and remove Labour bias, it was not well received by the public, and gerrymandering accusations seemed to stick. Other bills had public support, but everything hinged on whether the emergency budget could be passed.

The reduction of 10% in the education budget proved to be especially unpopular and Labour and the Lib Dems promised to vote against the budget. The Tories believed that showing resolve would win out, even if they had to face a new election. This theory was soon to be tested when they lost the Budget bill amid raucous scenes in the House of Commons.

Gordon Brown again led Labour into the second election, he had stayed on after defeat for just this circumstance. He had gained in popularity against the 'mean' Government, and Labour was now 2% ahead of the Tories in polls which had reduced Labour's weighting. The election was dominated by the deficit again, and Mr Brown's decision to abandon Trident to finance a small increase in the education budget and reduce the deficit proved popular. His late conversion to the AV+ system for Westminster, as espoused by Roy Jenkins, brought added support from Lib Dems and going into election day Labour were 6% ahead.

Again the polls had overestimated Labour support but they emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, 5 short of an overall majority. After a weekend of deals between the parties, David Cameron resigned and Gordon Brown was reinstated as Prime Minister. Nick Clegg had announced earlier that he could not work with Gordon Brown, but the promised PR referendum swung him.

With a reasonable combined majority, budget votes would not be a problem for the popular new Chancellor, Vince Cable, but he was the victim of vicious briefing, believed to be coming from the new Home Secretary Ed Balls. The tensions within the Government continued to rise and with the PR referendum won in May 2011, Nick Clegg demanded that Gordon Brown sack his long time friend. When Mr Brown refused, Nick Clegg demanded that the PM resign to keep the coalition intact.

Very surprisingly for everyone who knew Mr Brown, he agreed. The last year had been exhausting for the PM and he couldn't carry on fighting for his political life. He was replaced by Ed Milliband, beating his brother by 8% in the Labour electoral college vote. He faced the new Tory leader, Jeremy Hunt, at the dispatch box for the next two years until the coalition fell apart over the proposed 100 days detention without trial legislation.

Nobody would have expected in those days, for PM Hunt to lead a Con-Lib coalition with David Laws as his deputy but as his third term gets under way its interesting to see what might have been.

Squiffy.

Gordon Brown : Dissembling and disingenuous

That's the verdict on Gordon Brown's performance at the Iraq inquiry. Lords Boyce and Guthrie, both ex-chiefs of the defence staff, have given their opinions on Mr Brown's funding of equipment for Iraq and Afghanistan.

It looks like he used a form of words which is technically correct, but hides the bigger truth that he resisted extra funding for equipment which would have saved lives.

I know which ones I believe, and I think it is a disgrace.

Squiffy.

Harriet's performance was woeful

She had a one track mind, ‘I must make my points on Michael Ashcroft’ and forgot why she was there – to answer questions. She couldn’t even tell the difference between a question on Sterling and Gilts. It really reflected bad on her and the House in general (and she’s its leader), woe betide us if she ever makes it to the leadership.

 

Hague 7 points

Hattie 0 points.

 

Squiffy.

 

Rest In Peace, Michael Foot

It’s just been announced that Michael Foot, the ex-leader of the Labour party has died at the age of 96. He has two major distinctions, one for being a towering intellectual on the left of the Labour party during the 60’s, 70’s and early 80’s, and secondly as being in charge when Labour produced ‘the longest suicide note in history’ in the form of its 1983 manifesto.

 

He was a House of Commons man through and through and made some fantastic speeches at the dispatch box. I once nearly knocked him over in The Freemasons Arms in Hampstead and quickly apologized, he was tottering around on two walking sticks with a helper. He loved Hampstead and would often be seen in the area.

 

Rest In Peach, Michael.

 

Squiffy.

 

Michael Ashcroft's tax status

It has become an ever increasing bore to listen to interviewers asking Tory politicians about the tax status of Michael Ashcroft. The Tories have been made to sound evasive because they have not pried into another person’s tax status.

 

Finally though, Mr Ashcroft has clarified his own statement on his website, detailed by Ian Dale. In it he states that he stopped being the UN representative for Belize, re-took residence in the UK and started to declare all his taxable income to HMRC. In effect he became a Non-Dom, much the same as many Labour donors such as Lord Paul.

 

When did he do this? In 2000, so for the last 9 years we’ve had question after question, journos digging into his private affairs and now we know the truth. He didn’t do anything wrong at all.

 

I hope the matter can be put to rest now.

 

Squiffy.

 

Is the election going to be called this weekend?

The rumour mill has started. On the back of the revised 0.3% increase in GDP for 2009 Q4, it is possible that the PM will call an election for 25^th March. It avoids the Iraq inquiry appearance, it avoids the budget and he could overshadow David Cameron’s speech to the Tory Spring conference this weekend.

 

If I was Gordon Brown it’s what I’d do, but can the Labour Party afford it? Look at it this way, when has Gordon Brown avoided spending money because he couldn’t afford it? Exactly.

 

Squiffy.

 

The bullying - Taiwanese style

Hattip to Dizzy for this spot.

Squiffy.

What's going on with the polls?

There’s only been one poll since the excepts of Andrew Rawnsley’s book were released, showing the Tory lead steady at 6%. The lead may change in the next few days but let’s have a think about the trend since the beginning of 2010.

 

Since the beginning of the year the Tory lead has dropped, mainly due to an increase in the Labour position. Previously their polling was in the high twenties, but now has advanced to the low thirties. It’s possibly due to the end of the recession, maybe that the abortive coup steadied Gordon Brown’s position, or maybe due to the lack of a gaffe by team Brown in 2010.

 

Indeed, gaffes have been coming forth from the Tories. The confused message about how large the cuts would be this year, the unforgivable error about a misplaced decimal point, the crass death tax poster and the airbrushed David Cameron have all contributed to a sense of confusion and drift at CCHQ. It shows that Team Cameron are unsure whether to go positive or negative. My answer is go positive – the public needs some hope in these dire times. The Tories need to get a grip and unify their messages.

 

I think this may explain the figures. What I’m dismayed about, though, is how can 33% of the population think that it’s a good idea to have 5 more years hard Labour? I know that there is around a core of 23-24% of people who will always vote Labour, but what about the floating voters? Have they such short memories? Have they forgotten:

 

- the 10p tax

- the lack of planning for the wars

- the vast amount of increased tax

- the huge deficit

- the devaluation of our school exams

- the increase in violent crime

- the increase in inequality

- the destruction of the pension system

- the reduction of social mobility

- the 42 days detention

- the nanny state intervening everywhere

- the large data loss

- the complete breakdown of the immigration system

- the artificial dividing lines

- the doubling of council tax

- the broken communities

 

I could go on. Two things will determine the next 5 years, the first is the vast reduction of our deficit. How can we trust the man who created a huge structural deficit before going into recession to reduce it, when all he knows is how to spend? The second is the ‘vision thing’ for the succeeding years, what is the Labour party vision? What is Gordon Brown’s vision? He asked us to give him time to tell us – we’re still waiting. At least the Tory party have described a vision whereby people take control of their lives, services and communities.

 

Finally, I should confess that if Gordon Brown is PM in July I would seriously think of emigrating. I don’t think I could stand another 5 years of it!

 

Squiffy.

 

Disappointed.

Gordon Brown did not call an election. Hopefully he will soon, I want to get rid.

Squiffy.

James Purnell standing down - what does it say?

The news that James Purnell is to stand down as an MP in the forthcoming election is a major surprise. Firstly, he is one of the standard bearers for the New Labour project, secondly he may have been a future leader of the party.

 

The fact that he is no longer interested makes me think that he is giving up on Labour for a generation. Maybe he sees that the project is already lost and that Labour will make a left turn after the next election, which he expects them to lose.

 

It might have been better if he’d taken the opportunity to defect to the Tories, as a Blairite who pushed through so called Wisconsin styled benefit reform he may be able to fit in. He’d also have given Brown a bloody nose. Oh well!

 

Squiffy.

 

Labour to reveal election themes at the weekend

According to the BBC, here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8522025.stm, Labour are going to reveal their election themes at the weekend. Also, there are going to be a large number of cabinet members present. Given that the cabinet meets on a Thursday morning, could it be that GB has told his team that the election will be announced this weekend?

 

I think the game is going to be on, very soon.

 

Squiffy.

 

The Tories should not use negative campaigning

I completely agree with Daniel Finkelstein’s article in the Times today. In it he says that people have made their minds upon about Gordon Brown and now need a reason to vote Tory. The Tories should be sending out positive messages to give the populace enthusiasm.

 

The £20,000 death tax poster campaign was very negative and also speculative since it only attacked a possible tax and not one that has been put in place. It reminds me of the Labour posters of old, describing cuts of £35Bn in nurses and teachers when the Tories had only promised to reduce the increase in spending – thus no cuts. It was despicable of Labour then as the death tax poster is now. I expected better.

 

If you’re going to go negative, mention the many many things which Labour have promised and failed to deliver on. On Tax, mention the ‘no income tax rises’ pledge and then the many increases in NI. Mention the wider gap between rich and poor. Better still, don’t go negative and give positive messages.

 

Talk about bringing down the debt in a measured but effective way. Talk about no ID cards. Talk about remedies for Broken Britain. Talk about incentives for generating your own electricity. Talk about refunds for recycling, not taxes for rubbish. Talk about cuts in Council Tax. Bombard the country with positive policies on each billboard.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

What do we think of Brown's interview?

Watching the Piers Morgan interview last night was a strange affair. He came across well when discussing his family, you could not help to be touched by the segment when he talked about his children.

He looked different though when discussing politics, when he talked about being angry about Tony Blair becoming leader, he said "but the anger went away quite quickly". I wouldn't class the seething resentment of 10 years being "quite quickly". There were points when you wanted to shout at the screen, for instance when GB mentioned that he'd made many mistakes - any interviewer worth his salt would ask "what was your biggest mistake?".

It was clear that Piers Morgan is a family friend, and so would not give the PM a hard time. It does raise questions of political bias in the run up to an election. I understand that David Cameron has turned down a similar offer, but I'm sure that ITV has not offered a friendly interviewer to do it. I can't believe that the ex-editor of the Mirror would give as easy ride to the Tory leader as to the PM.

I expect GB's personal ratings to increase by a few points and maybe an extra percentage on the Labour share. I expect a totally different poll response when GB has to face tough questions from the public, Paxo & Humphreys during an election campaign. He has ducked these media contests in the past, so we'll see in a few weeks time. I can't wait.

Squiffy.

Euro-turn, Greece tests the mettle

Today, there will a conference of EU leaders to discuss what should happen to try to secure the Euro-zone and handle Greece’s budget deficit. It is also the first to be hosted by Herman von Rompuy.

 

Greece is running a very high deficit at 12.7% (similarly to the UK) of GDP but has little means of paying off the debt other than drastic and unpopular cuts. If they had a floating currency they could devalue and then inflate their economy, but the Euro closes that option for them.

 

The stakes are high. If at the end of today, the EU issues a communiqué saying that Greece has a plan of attack and the EU shows confidence in it then it will be clear that they  cannot agree on a plan of action and Greece is toast. If they say that they have a fund which could be used to aide Greece, the markets will test it until the fund has to be used. If they say that they have started aiding Greece, markets will judge the scale of help and decide whether to continue battering Greece or hold back.

 

It all depends on the market’s verdict on the help. Incidentally, the Maastrict treaty which set-up EMU made it illegal for the EU to help out countries which became debt ridden. Only bilateral agreements can be used, which in effect means Germany. I guess that the EU will neatly forget that, and who is going to prosecute?

 

If Greece is allowed to fall and default on its debts, the focus will switch to Spain and Portugal. It all reminds me of 1992 again. If the markets then test Italy, the Euro itself will be looking death in the face.

 

The original rules that set-up EMU, tried to enforce convergence between member states before allowing entry to the Euro-Zone and then had a Stability Pact to make sure the states kept within deficit limits of 3%. In practice, the entry requirements were fudged and the stability pact has not been enforced (why fine a country which is already running a large deficit?).

 

It now points to two directions, either the Euro-Zone collapses, or it pulls through but means that economic union needs to be much tighter to take control of fiscal policy.

 

Either way, we are much better off out of it.

 

Squiffy.

 

 

 

 

Why do I think the Tories will still win?

According to many commentators we are likely to have a hung Parliament after the election. Others point to a small Tory majority, but I believe the majority will be significant although not a landslide. Why though?

When the election is called, possibly on May 5th although I still think there is good chance that it will be early, there will be a bid test for our pollsters. This will be the first general election in which the Tories have started a good chance since 1992. That time the polls got it spectacularly wrong, but each election since has been a foregone conclusion and so many people have not paid much attention to the correlation between polls and outcome since.

I'm an avid reader of PoliticalBetting.com, a website which studies polls very closely. One significant fact is that in all the polls before the general election result in the last three GEs 29 out of 31 of them have overstated the Labour position, so much so that Mike Smithson who owns PoliticalBetting.com has a golden rule:

"The poll which has Labour in the weakest position is the likeliest to be most accurate".

Other tests of polls such as the European Elections have also shown this to be true. Political Betting does have its own pollster Angus Reid, which has consistently been putting the Tories at 40% and Labour at 24%, if that were true it would be a significant difference to the other polls. We'll only find out at the election!

There is a common wisdom that the Tories are not doing as well as Labour did before 1997, that's probably true. In 1997 people were really wanting to believe in new Labour, and because that promise has been broken we're not inclined to believe the promises so readily now.

There are factors which have given Labour an exaggerated position in the polls. I'll quickly go over these, firstly there is a well known fact that Labour voters are less likely to turn out than Tory voters, add in the fact that Labour is even less popular now and that may be more significant. Secondly, for some reason, people working in the public sector are over represented in the polls than their private sector counterparts, and they are more likely to be Labour voters. Thirdly, in previous elections there was major tactical voting to stop the Tories getting in. The pollsters generally ask questions about how they would like to vote, but there are changes when they are asked to vote 'in their constituency'. There is evidence that the tactical voting factor maybe about to be reversed.

Also, other data points to polls of the marginals (where the change of Government will come from) show a 5% increase in Tory lead over the national position.

From all these factors, the historical data, the overstating of Labour's position and the data from the marginals shows that it is likely again that the polls are going to be out by several percentage points. That's why I think the Tories will still win, and talk of hung parliaments should not come into play until the lead is roughly 4%.

Squiffy.


m th

Politics at its cyncial best

Yesterday’s announcement that Gordon Brown has now embraced the AV System for Westminster shows what a cynical politician he is. Just on the cusp of losing an election, he wants to change the electoral system. He says, this is because we need to renew our politics. Yes we do, people think that politicians are in it for themselves, they get too many perks and don’t represent their constituents well.

 

AV is not going to fix any of that, in fact it shows that Brown is doing it for himself (one of the main criticisms). He wants to entice the LibDems into a possible electoral pact after a hung parliament – that is his only motive. It’s as clear as the nose on your face. Cynicism at its height, he has never shown any  interest in voting reform in the past – so why now, three months before an election?

 

Squiffy.

 

Let's nail this notion of Gordon Brown's

Time and time again we hear that this is not the moment to start withdrawing support for the British Economy. With a hesitant recovery, they say, we should continue the support until the recovery fully takes hold.

So why are none of the interviewers asking the next follow-up question? It really infuriates me that they miss the obvious.

If this isn’t the time to withdraw the support why has January seen the withdrawal of the cut in VAT (at £12Bn – the largest Government ‘support’ package) and the stopping of the car scrappage scheme (the Government’s most successful ‘support’ package)?

The Government is saying one thing and doing the opposite – it’s hypocrisy – but no-one is pointing it out.

Get’s my goat.

Also, we are now the most indebted nation (according to Guido) as a percentage of GDP:

Squiffy.